Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2016-07-07

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-07-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 4070 2835 2499 424 32 0 0
OW 0 30 129 961 434 35 0 0
VODI 0 1 41 1199 1110 88 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 440 2600 305 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 554 2880 5465 29 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 1251 9740 8096 613
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-07-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 4693 2593 2701 353 39 0 0
OW 0 9 166 1151 326 66 0 0
VODI 0 1 40 1556 1265 72 0 0
ODI 0 0 21 358 1952 281 0 0
CDI 0 0 14 687 2880 5724 373 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 2224 9647 6386 284
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-07-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 4418 3538 2827 276 25 0 0
OW 0 8 67 1227 143 40 0 0
VODI 0 2 26 1891 1201 55 5 0
ODI 0 0 24 449 2402 340 13 0
CDI 0 0 0 322 3808 6722 702 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 537 8145 6404 249
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-07-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 5612 3213 2639 229 43 0 0
OW 0 16 163 1848 395 30 0 0
VODI 0 4 45 1580 820 32 0 0
ODI 0 5 25 599 2062 249 0 0
CDI 0 2 0 347 5095 6150 53 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 713 9726 4115 52
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 5613 3231 2804 279 37 0 0
OW 0 14 138 1660 354 33 0 0
VODI 0 5 52 1617 817 40 0 0
ODI 0 6 25 575 2035 275 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 357 5115 6393 53 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 714 9452 4115 52

Date: 2016-07-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 6124 3320 3464 328 64 0 0
OW 0 14 139 1225 421 26 0 0
VODI 0 9 39 1413 805 38 0 0
ODI 0 6 10 616 1940 277 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 466 6643 4377 58 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 1155 9678 3207 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 6126 3332 3380 307 65 0 0
OW 0 13 124 1234 398 21 0 0
VODI 0 8 42 1453 864 46 0 0
ODI 0 6 10 636 1840 257 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 481 6789 4580 113 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 1094 9491 3152 0

Date: 2016-07-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 6527 3737 3479 280 56 0 0
OW 0 18 43 1027 115 13 0 0
VODI 0 3 8 1950 655 17 0 0
ODI 0 2 1 633 3588 327 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 240 5986 5891 18 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 2461 7340 1447 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 6516 3543 3475 352 57 0 0
OW 0 17 190 1125 239 13 0 0
VODI 0 11 52 1509 847 66 0 0
ODI 0 6 4 519 1899 395 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 701 5977 5199 19 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 3771 7914 1446 0

Date: 2016-07-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 6655 4209 3393 277 45 0 0
OW 0 37 119 1404 92 10 0 0
VODI 0 9 7 1786 814 21 0 0
ODI 0 2 1 840 3136 446 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 436 5302 7135 252 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 1330 7843 261 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 6581 3945 3455 346 48 0 0
OW 0 83 314 1172 152 12 0 0
VODI 0 29 65 1579 859 91 0 0
ODI 0 10 12 585 1774 381 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1068 6179 5474 218 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 1641 9494 295 0

Date: 2016-07-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3 6060 5908 3011 243 16 0 0
OW 0 41 104 1579 96 0 0 0
VODI 0 10 12 1618 863 8 0 0
ODI 0 3 1 676 3165 438 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 327 4007 9119 1174 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 73 7143 164 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3 6002 5608 2884 326 16 0 0
OW 0 63 322 1229 147 3 0 0
VODI 0 37 83 1557 861 66 0 0
ODI 0 12 12 622 1614 205 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 911 5440 7704 1156 0
VCDI 0 0 0 12 59 8730 178 0


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