Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2016-06-30

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-07-04

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 29 245 777 27 7 0 0
OW 0 1 3 230 23 11 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 203 212 14 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 14 546 150 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1001 8482 693 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 63 8691 13949 1531
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 30 246 890 42 12 0 0
OW 0 0 2 224 107 18 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 91 327 70 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 19 244 378 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 804 7515 1344 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 348 9362 13298 1531

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 9 19 128 78 0 0 0
OW 0 2 0 12 24 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 27 62 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 163 122 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 567 630 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 260 959 61 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 10 19 134 115 1 0 0
OW 0 1 0 10 39 4 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 16 47 20 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 7 105 152 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 365 502 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 483 1040 61 0

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 343 766 778 69 0 0 0
OW 0 0 17 235 25 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 4 457 106 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 249 714 36 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 266 2115 641 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 122 1835 1204 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 342 729 885 106 0 0 0
OW 0 1 25 202 79 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 22 254 159 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 9 120 313 36 0 0
CDI 0 0 2 524 1472 370 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1022 2106 1204 0

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 965 432 46 0 0 0 0
OW 0 3 53 171 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 412 71 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 56 1044 78 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 258 1747 285 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 33 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 965 359 101 0 0 0 0
OW 0 3 84 106 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 42 398 252 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 68 700 92 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 365 1639 318 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 56 94 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 74 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 5 171 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 3 377 181 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 81 1724 178 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 110 3742 547 0
VCDI 0 1 0 0 0 0 49 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 116 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 5 158 32 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 3 247 274 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 150 1042 157 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 32 667 3740 596 0
VCDI 0 1 0 0 0 21 0 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1 14 78 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 288 111 11 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 35 1619 308 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 184 1994 366 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 87 224 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 38 6 0 0 0
OW 0 0 8 52 38 10 0 0
VODI 0 1 6 141 380 94 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 173 974 332 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 491 1700 460 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 28 264 130 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 2217 2482 622 12 0 0 0
OW 0 2 0 180 15 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 38 109 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 100 92 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 36 376 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 33 16 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 2214 2470 507 17 0 0 0
OW 0 5 12 275 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 58 143 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 52 164 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 44 282 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 47 14 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3022 5604 2647 58 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3022 5604 2647 58 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5145 3881 778 262 3 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 174 13 2 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 241 196 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 29 671 87 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 58 154 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5145 3881 777 331 6 2 0 0
OW 0 0 1 235 83 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 99 507 30 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 41 273 91 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 72 121 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10979 1974 35 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10979 1974 35 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 3328 535 275 40 4 0 0
OW 0 0 10 216 47 6 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 128 148 14 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 281 90 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 31 587 55 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 3328 510 289 61 10 0 0
OW 0 0 32 160 54 13 0 0
VODI 0 0 3 143 120 26 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 32 238 74 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 74 578 54 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1472 1956 1131 78 8 0 0
OW 0 5 18 573 71 9 0 0
VODI 0 1 24 1120 735 18 0 0
ODI 0 2 21 115 656 53 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 44 170 278 26 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1473 1930 1056 103 14 0 0
OW 0 4 29 672 112 18 0 0
VODI 0 0 12 960 549 23 0 0
ODI 0 3 30 142 429 32 0 0
CDI 0 0 18 153 499 178 19 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 18 104 7 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11019 6414 1423 608 6 0 0 0
OW 0 0 19 161 40 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 106 49 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 4 117 29 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 16 125 12 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 10 47 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11019 6414 1417 672 47 0 0 0
OW 0 0 25 114 15 2 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 91 113 38 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 53 88 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 40 49 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0


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