Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2016-06-30

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-06-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68050 25333 9359 5669 361 169 1 0
OW 9 127 374 2073 875 85 1 0
VODI 0 31 114 1696 2086 525 2 0
ODI 0 0 19 770 3440 1961 46 0
CDI 0 0 0 647 5585 10325 1389 0
VCDI 0 0 0 39 1116 15429 19559 9783
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-06-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65521 26826 12159 4644 707 165 0 0
OW 9 101 407 2049 914 243 8 0
VODI 0 15 99 1666 1949 931 8 0
ODI 0 4 23 655 3317 2000 45 0
CDI 0 0 2 640 6207 11672 1444 0
VCDI 0 0 0 68 2230 14014 18282 8024
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-06-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61973 31420 12425 5271 530 55 0 0
OW 7 8 48 2160 513 58 5 0
VODI 0 2 6 1978 1858 159 14 0
ODI 0 0 4 528 6764 989 11 0
CDI 0 0 0 469 5864 15085 1629 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1168 10982 20951 4114
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-06-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64359 31873 10627 5126 658 25 0 0
OW 6 23 140 2219 611 62 0 0
VODI 0 4 12 2245 2067 218 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 565 6366 1022 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 533 5757 15409 1924 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 1083 10947 18771 4390
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64359 31877 10642 5398 729 16 0 0
OW 6 18 121 1976 556 60 0 0
VODI 0 5 16 2168 2346 223 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 592 5930 1117 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 553 5801 15098 2152 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 1180 11169 18541 4390

Date: 2016-07-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67626 29378 11544 4643 445 32 0 0
OW 6 57 240 2344 663 70 1 0
VODI 0 2 76 2209 2775 253 0 0
ODI 0 0 9 728 5565 1087 12 0
CDI 0 0 1 728 4958 16396 1072 2
VCDI 0 0 0 12 1650 12880 17057 2527
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67626 29403 11615 4886 573 33 0 0
OW 6 34 183 2107 536 56 1 0
VODI 0 0 63 2157 2973 244 0 0
ODI 0 0 7 755 5132 1237 17 0
CDI 0 0 2 721 5035 15998 1222 2
VCDI 0 0 0 38 1807 13150 16902 2527

Date: 2016-07-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72020 26236 11318 4762 313 19 0 0
OW 5 14 139 2201 260 29 0 0
VODI 0 1 31 3397 1980 74 0 0
ODI 0 2 21 588 7635 1223 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 312 4546 18756 1984 0
VCDI 0 1 0 0 446 11618 15583 1531
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72020 26235 11139 5077 503 39 0 0
OW 5 14 223 2208 575 66 0 0
VODI 0 1 88 2498 2871 315 1 0
ODI 0 3 39 754 4423 1596 10 0
CDI 0 0 20 723 4853 16665 2842 0
VCDI 0 1 0 0 1955 13038 14717 1531

Date: 2016-07-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70564 31218 10056 3911 277 53 0 0
OW 4 20 256 2513 428 72 0 0
VODI 0 7 57 2873 2563 139 0 0
ODI 0 1 35 862 6769 1171 16 0
CDI 0 2 0 338 6556 17208 1498 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 781 15844 10951 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70564 31145 9792 4020 451 95 0 0
OW 4 84 339 2132 646 105 0 0
VODI 0 10 174 2633 2888 396 2 0
ODI 0 8 59 972 4347 1326 37 0
CDI 0 1 40 722 6496 16887 2126 0
VCDI 0 0 0 23 2546 15678 10300 0

Date: 2016-07-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69234 35128 8151 4480 385 59 0 0
OW 1 35 262 2668 825 69 0 0
VODI 0 14 61 2519 2758 244 14 0
ODI 0 15 15 828 6025 1552 82 0
CDI 0 1 0 458 6837 16251 2532 0
VCDI 0 1 0 4 1111 15250 9179 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69233 35088 7733 4354 676 97 0 0
OW 2 69 473 2360 822 112 7 0
VODI 0 10 199 2493 2723 512 72 0
ODI 0 13 55 961 4032 1646 95 0
CDI 0 13 29 692 7431 16322 4282 0
VCDI 0 1 0 97 2257 14736 7351 0


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