Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2016-06-23

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-06-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61107 30919 8017 4115 242 123 3 0
OW 24 74 313 2117 439 126 2 0
VODI 0 13 113 1551 2114 251 32 0
ODI 0 2 26 625 2539 1330 149 0
CDI 0 0 3 539 4284 11392 5885 71
VCDI 0 0 0 147 1806 9761 26519 10275
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-06-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62678 25377 11215 5649 224 146 0 0
OW 13 40 271 2280 494 113 3 0
VODI 0 8 125 1706 2175 283 11 0
ODI 0 0 34 798 2696 1293 91 0
CDI 0 0 0 660 4808 11814 5059 320
VCDI 0 0 0 99 1960 7876 22840 13889
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-06-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65249 26411 9345 5303 213 129 0 0
OW 20 30 294 2295 384 48 0 0
VODI 0 7 28 2151 2102 93 4 0
ODI 0 0 1 690 4724 949 31 0
CDI 0 0 0 402 6111 10228 1027 0
VCDI 0 0 0 25 1184 12059 26070 9441
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-06-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64479 28727 9849 4833 224 154 10 0
OW 8 142 388 2156 665 75 1 0
VODI 0 17 102 1771 2198 314 11 0
ODI 0 7 14 758 4043 1066 76 0
CDI 0 0 0 625 5166 10374 1531 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 1736 14313 23895 7312
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64479 28750 9872 5097 263 161 8 0
OW 8 120 364 1833 562 71 3 0
VODI 0 18 106 1795 2207 310 7 0
ODI 0 5 11 788 3944 1295 68 0
CDI 0 0 0 618 5149 9997 1781 0
VCDI 0 0 0 20 1907 14462 23657 7312

Date: 2016-06-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64332 29385 10137 5011 520 163 0 0
OW 9 91 331 2138 883 168 3 0
VODI 0 4 127 1641 1951 774 15 0
ODI 0 5 18 736 3231 2161 51 0
CDI 0 0 1 690 6089 10263 1515 0
VCDI 0 0 0 65 2089 14083 16821 11547
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64332 29411 10236 5298 455 179 0 0
OW 9 63 249 1739 758 179 0 0
VODI 0 6 105 1721 2155 793 13 0
ODI 0 5 23 747 3111 2167 52 0
CDI 0 0 1 709 6333 10833 1711 0
VCDI 0 0 0 67 1951 13461 16629 11547

Date: 2016-06-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63361 29549 11701 5737 459 141 0 0
OW 9 26 124 1990 394 54 4 0
VODI 0 2 13 2176 1698 142 16 0
ODI 0 1 2 524 6442 1023 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 420 5575 15778 1104 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 1496 11644 19377 6049
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63362 29434 11273 5983 756 199 1 0
OW 8 115 340 1594 976 209 14 0
VODI 0 27 186 1682 2151 899 17 0
ODI 0 2 32 723 3250 1730 53 0
CDI 0 0 9 777 6104 11691 2431 0
VCDI 0 0 0 93 2827 14054 17997 6049

Date: 2016-06-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62899 33674 10408 4628 453 66 0 0
OW 7 9 90 2319 491 63 5 0
VODI 0 0 9 2158 1873 166 7 0
ODI 0 0 0 578 6623 1070 17 0
CDI 0 0 0 561 5582 15175 2130 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 1636 9727 17986 6628
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62899 33597 9883 4570 905 135 4 0
OW 7 74 428 1789 1077 115 7 0
VODI 0 12 156 1907 2367 366 7 0
ODI 0 0 30 912 3418 1449 25 0
CDI 0 0 10 972 5841 12110 4642 35
VCDI 0 0 0 104 3050 12092 15460 6593

Date: 2016-07-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70666 27356 9829 4796 496 37 0 0
OW 6 41 199 2239 704 55 0 0
VODI 0 3 60 2272 2433 197 0 0
ODI 0 0 4 740 5866 1015 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 624 5373 16023 933 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 1322 13017 16504 4227
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70666 27198 9332 4833 1248 127 0 0
OW 6 164 417 1716 1142 111 0 0
VODI 0 23 230 1941 2090 331 5 0
ODI 0 15 84 1075 3310 1342 101 0
CDI 0 0 29 1024 6418 14585 3519 15
VCDI 0 0 0 87 1986 13848 13818 4212


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