Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2016-06-16

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-06-20

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 320 227 148 17 2 0 0
OW 0 0 4 124 22 8 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 162 113 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 29 405 32 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 340 2075 134 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 83 3709 17509 11429
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 320 231 195 23 6 0 0
OW 0 0 0 113 34 12 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 79 166 18 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 55 216 80 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 22 335 2063 2049 281
VCDI 0 0 0 0 206 3656 15585 11148

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 4 23 76 0 0
OW 0 1 2 5 6 33 0 0
VODI 0 3 9 35 18 39 0 0
ODI 0 2 1 2 11 43 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 693 248 11 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 927 405 528 8
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 3 36 105 0 0
OW 0 0 3 5 13 99 0 0
VODI 0 3 7 27 0 2 0 0
ODI 0 3 2 11 3 10 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 275 117 20 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1351 511 518 8

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 220 594 615 22 0 0 0
OW 0 0 93 186 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 2 335 66 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 207 582 8 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 159 837 1368 120 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1201 2715 635
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 220 603 695 38 0 0 0
OW 0 0 44 177 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 35 149 57 0 1 0
ODI 0 0 7 161 203 21 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 320 1175 1491 1159 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 35 1065 1669 635

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 453 246 25 0 0 0 0
OW 0 5 118 118 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 18 305 25 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 115 355 53 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 28 200 939 20 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 242 2379 10
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 444 268 28 0 0 0 0
OW 0 14 65 112 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 30 211 42 15 0 0
ODI 0 0 19 123 281 199 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 117 256 886 1475 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 134 924 10

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 24 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 89 64 14 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 25 402 189 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 226 1873 255 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 80 631 3118 228
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 28 19 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 74 108 63 9 0
ODI 0 0 0 32 217 304 47 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 315 1475 1510 31
VCDI 0 0 0 0 128 865 1819 197

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 1 7 3 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 52 63 26 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 10 399 178 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 41 398 2559 148 0
VCDI 0 0 0 30 46 360 1001 4
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 2 19 5 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 32 73 83 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 29 153 247 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 405 1955 480 0
VCDI 0 0 0 71 262 836 669 4

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 305 1909 1072 23 0 0 0
OW 0 0 12 556 38 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 368 485 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 738 65 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 3 225 7 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 61 462 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 305 1856 1335 51 0 0 0
OW 0 0 57 448 237 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 8 213 871 29 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 112 127 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 16 176 68 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 21 401 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4767 5038 1337 157 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 6 21 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 2 3 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4767 5038 1343 172 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 8 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4988 3259 626 909 15 0 0 0
OW 0 0 2 178 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 135 103 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 10 500 45 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 120 642 18 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 27 98 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4988 3259 619 904 27 1 0 0
OW 0 0 9 185 20 4 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 125 142 19 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 16 341 98 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 224 597 116 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7577 4783 381 247 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7577 4783 381 247 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 2160 649 170 1 1 0 0
OW 0 0 27 242 19 4 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 159 208 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 8 272 139 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 47 994 393 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 5 295 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 2160 617 173 4 3 0 0
OW 0 0 54 186 47 5 0 0
VODI 0 0 5 209 210 26 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 11 231 213 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 41 805 610 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 16 99 75 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 557 491 632 7 0 0 0
OW 0 24 51 519 34 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 6 662 421 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 241 1205 260 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 54 552 2455 34 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 31 121 223 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 529 446 675 20 0 0 0
OW 0 27 67 390 50 0 0 0
VODI 0 28 33 533 367 27 1 0
ODI 0 0 2 245 535 135 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 244 1147 2524 46 0
VCDI 0 0 0 22 131 151 207 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6726 7991 3152 746 83 11 0 0
OW 0 2 12 247 51 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 0 157 190 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 15 372 129 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 41 278 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6726 7986 3148 791 92 11 0 0
OW 0 7 16 238 72 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 0 127 250 40 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 9 274 137 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 49 231 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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