Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2016-06-16

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-06-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66147 22444 7858 4741 606 21 4 0
OW 28 57 234 1883 867 54 2 0
VODI 0 9 115 1274 1837 361 15 0
ODI 0 3 109 627 2288 1116 271 0
CDI 0 0 68 655 4039 8098 5034 7
VCDI 0 0 0 314 2040 9530 32120 12172
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-06-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66805 23184 7737 4318 516 36 4 0
OW 17 62 255 1799 876 63 4 0
VODI 0 20 140 1343 2005 488 21 0
ODI 0 4 104 699 2012 1234 217 0
CDI 0 0 53 798 4419 8968 6539 54
VCDI 0 0 0 233 2165 8947 22084 18825
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-06-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60919 24855 11700 5338 379 36 7 0
OW 25 55 284 2135 474 15 3 0
VODI 0 3 99 1652 1855 69 15 0
ODI 0 0 6 654 3292 971 44 0
CDI 0 0 0 398 4110 11258 3629 0
VCDI 0 0 0 89 1777 8884 30301 11717
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-06-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64214 25556 9579 4350 303 61 4 0
OW 24 68 333 2095 504 31 4 0
VODI 0 9 114 1499 2133 207 16 0
ODI 0 4 24 622 2591 1343 98 0
CDI 0 1 4 490 3723 10720 6251 0
VCDI 0 0 0 159 1733 10366 30110 7705
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64214 25582 9645 4773 354 51 4 0
OW 24 42 281 1769 503 31 3 0
VODI 0 9 100 1455 2011 232 20 0
ODI 0 4 25 605 2569 1432 124 0
CDI 0 1 3 453 3791 10260 6211 0
VCDI 0 0 0 160 1759 10722 30121 7705

Date: 2016-06-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64934 25421 8766 5423 178 118 22 0
OW 16 28 334 2242 412 122 1 0
VODI 0 14 88 1721 2017 279 12 0
ODI 0 1 13 815 2548 1344 143 0
CDI 0 0 1 590 4679 10524 6429 73
VCDI 0 0 0 140 2107 8534 24258 12701
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64934 25424 8848 5761 216 120 19 0
OW 16 25 266 1930 395 109 4 0
VODI 0 13 71 1763 1989 326 22 0
ODI 0 2 16 753 2415 1451 167 0
CDI 0 0 1 590 4617 10266 6836 313
VCDI 0 0 0 134 2309 8649 23817 12461

Date: 2016-06-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65757 25222 9612 4725 193 90 0 0
OW 21 36 327 2221 220 48 0 0
VODI 0 9 35 2461 1759 105 0 0
ODI 0 2 1 662 5241 1141 15 0
CDI 0 0 0 284 3457 13656 1144 0
VCDI 0 0 0 31 1169 6762 28328 12314
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65768 25182 9512 5218 292 126 0 0
OW 10 50 315 1892 528 125 0 0
VODI 0 34 118 1779 2286 322 12 0
ODI 0 3 30 692 2566 1571 71 0
CDI 0 0 0 710 4238 12320 7537 312
VCDI 0 0 0 93 2129 7338 21867 12002

Date: 2016-06-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61960 30271 9805 5166 185 149 0 0
OW 10 96 377 2219 483 63 0 0
VODI 0 15 60 2032 2073 238 13 0
ODI 0 0 4 772 3902 1200 48 0
CDI 0 0 0 550 4915 10513 1626 0
VCDI 0 0 0 36 1719 16766 22028 7754
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61961 30231 9452 5018 251 243 0 0
OW 9 123 496 1922 522 81 0 0
VODI 0 25 227 1824 1853 427 28 0
ODI 0 2 48 867 2836 1603 166 0
CDI 0 1 23 979 5341 13135 8788 1081
VCDI 0 0 0 165 2474 13440 14733 6673

Date: 2016-06-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68050 25333 9359 5669 361 169 1 0
OW 9 127 374 2073 875 85 1 0
VODI 0 31 114 1696 2086 525 2 0
ODI 0 0 19 770 3440 1961 46 0
CDI 0 0 0 647 5585 10325 1389 0
VCDI 0 0 0 39 1116 15429 19559 9783
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68050 25253 8977 5364 301 290 2 0
OW 9 167 482 1679 822 117 4 0
VODI 0 52 249 1586 1867 666 34 0
ODI 0 15 97 996 3177 1984 112 0
CDI 0 4 61 1145 5267 17698 7572 1455
VCDI 0 0 0 124 2029 7739 13274 8328


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