Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2016-06-09

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-06-13

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 48 126 292 23 5 0 0
OW 0 0 0 69 33 8 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 53 105 7 3 0
ODI 0 0 0 27 234 34 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 461 886 137 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 53 3195 19873 11216
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 48 126 294 36 8 0 0
OW 0 0 0 63 34 9 2 0
VODI 0 0 0 41 60 23 6 0
ODI 0 0 0 20 115 65 11 0
CDI 0 0 0 29 473 957 2537 104
VCDI 0 0 0 0 191 3073 17463 11114

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 12 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 69 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 21 79 0 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 35 104 0 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 318 106 85 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 853 462 974 4
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 87 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 47 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 7 45 0 7 0
ODI 0 0 0 36 59 16 33 0
CDI 0 0 0 19 209 147 735 3
VCDI 0 0 0 0 988 405 289 1

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 394 552 305 8 0 0 0
OW 0 9 146 144 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 80 235 35 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 198 445 12 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 103 703 3240 318 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 8 1436 1591 7
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 391 548 330 9 0 0 0
OW 0 8 49 122 21 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 68 98 59 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 59 89 164 32 2 0
CDI 0 0 56 346 897 2945 1191 7
VCDI 0 0 0 0 57 1711 716 0

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 135 386 20 0 0 0 0
OW 0 9 105 62 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 32 282 46 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 108 304 39 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 21 309 1212 59 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 857 1668 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 119 350 31 0 0 0 0
OW 0 24 83 70 31 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 62 161 37 30 0 0
ODI 0 0 28 113 166 148 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 118 425 1124 129 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 806 1595 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 5 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 50 72 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 24 305 97 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 450 2557 166 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 859 2634 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 5 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 17 69 45 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 29 209 147 27 0
CDI 0 0 0 31 510 2031 266 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 35 1300 2514 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 6 22 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 47 148 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 30 346 47 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 56 793 1128 133 0
VCDI 0 0 0 62 559 654 1282 6
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 2 29 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 43 14 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 29 141 74 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 15 253 165 48 0
CDI 0 0 0 23 461 902 420 0
VCDI 0 0 0 133 941 680 947 6

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 594 925 732 35 7 5 0
OW 0 0 13 529 96 1 2 0
VODI 0 0 0 464 337 9 5 0
ODI 0 0 0 11 994 200 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 50 644 78 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 16 579 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 594 931 1122 256 14 6 0
OW 0 0 7 378 261 50 1 0
VODI 0 0 0 198 749 334 62 0
ODI 0 0 0 34 182 247 13 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 64 232 142 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 449 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2465 6817 1666 327 4 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 19 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 8 14 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2465 6817 1666 340 19 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 14 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3768 4479 590 612 42 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 315 73 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 172 125 0 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 8 254 19 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 99 789 152 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 36 160 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3768 4479 585 806 101 0 0 0
OW 0 0 5 170 67 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 123 134 1 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 8 166 36 22 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 125 807 292 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7493 3978 964 484 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 66 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7493 3978 964 497 2 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 54 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1425 830 247 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1 29 283 10 0 1 0
VODI 0 0 2 208 125 1 3 0
ODI 0 0 0 17 246 80 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 47 463 211 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 10 126 1433 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1424 807 318 15 0 0 0
OW 0 2 47 179 43 3 1 0
VODI 0 0 7 172 113 25 14 0
ODI 0 0 0 78 150 121 55 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 101 393 807 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 16 128 776 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 231 575 515 20 1 0 0
OW 0 2 59 345 74 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 296 306 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 180 436 128 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 178 581 1009 111 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 75 393 2706 359
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 231 568 615 91 1 0 0
OW 0 2 33 218 147 5 0 0
VODI 0 0 31 161 256 46 1 0
ODI 0 0 2 181 254 117 13 0
CDI 0 0 0 222 375 756 488 0
VCDI 0 0 0 119 369 610 2316 359

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7738 8595 1394 660 142 16 0 0
OW 0 0 9 230 59 8 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 197 151 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 17 236 38 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 61 241 134 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 25 243 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7738 8595 1392 799 150 16 0 0
OW 0 0 11 162 111 10 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 132 200 42 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 11 162 121 31 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 26 149 349 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0


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