Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2016-06-09

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-06-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1412 1634 918 68 3 0 0
OW 0 67 137 437 211 13 5 0
VODI 0 29 69 362 433 97 22 0
ODI 0 13 51 243 594 374 115 0
CDI 0 4 161 446 1054 2934 1621 2
VCDI 0 0 1 113 376 4593 18854 8400
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-06-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1400 1554 899 115 6 0 0
OW 0 78 161 346 207 49 3 0
VODI 0 39 107 377 364 190 33 0
ODI 0 36 83 312 612 427 48 0
CDI 0 18 170 479 1425 4045 1372 14
VCDI 0 0 0 114 616 5362 16286 8519
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-06-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1369 1760 945 134 2 0 0
OW 0 27 191 559 221 7 0 0
VODI 0 3 94 626 503 50 4 0
ODI 0 6 103 400 914 295 42 0
CDI 0 6 51 499 1501 3983 1994 0
VCDI 0 0 0 43 736 6244 14412 8142
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-06-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1696 1400 1105 174 4 0 0
OW 0 52 156 577 282 11 0 0
VODI 0 8 101 533 619 75 12 0
ODI 0 3 92 358 772 280 56 0
CDI 0 9 59 482 1449 4405 2530 2
VCDI 0 0 0 90 988 4755 17352 5379
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1696 1409 1195 213 4 0 0
OW 0 49 135 512 294 13 0 0
VODI 0 11 106 511 585 61 11 0
ODI 0 3 89 347 763 268 62 0
CDI 0 9 69 492 1401 4347 2439 1
VCDI 0 0 0 88 1028 4837 17438 5380

Date: 2016-06-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1785 1330 1131 204 5 0 0
OW 0 62 151 559 302 46 0 0
VODI 0 6 124 505 538 142 10 0
ODI 0 2 110 417 728 360 94 0
CDI 0 0 50 533 1789 3950 3953 5
VCDI 0 0 0 158 1087 4999 13298 7433
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1794 1342 1233 256 13 0 0
OW 0 52 133 497 277 42 0 0
VODI 0 7 118 485 502 133 10 0
ODI 0 2 104 380 737 343 104 0
CDI 0 0 68 551 1784 4099 3910 2
VCDI 0 0 0 157 1092 4872 13331 7436

Date: 2016-06-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1599 1839 1115 87 5 0 0
OW 0 21 320 687 191 2 1 0
VODI 0 3 114 960 557 7 4 0
ODI 0 0 2 536 1461 236 15 0
CDI 0 0 0 308 1974 5978 757 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 948 5119 15145 5873
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1579 1793 1317 234 6 0 0
OW 0 36 173 500 312 10 1 0
VODI 0 7 164 508 486 95 22 0
ODI 0 1 89 451 764 367 106 0
CDI 0 0 56 713 1992 5373 3470 81
VCDI 0 0 0 119 1430 5496 12323 5792

Date: 2016-06-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1883 1710 1321 183 9 0 0
OW 0 40 231 739 241 2 1 0
VODI 0 6 100 772 668 10 7 0
ODI 0 1 10 477 1186 325 24 0
CDI 0 0 1 371 2256 4916 3399 0
VCDI 0 0 0 38 1166 5177 13953 4643
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1841 1504 1453 328 8 1 0
OW 0 64 185 443 293 24 3 0
VODI 0 21 173 504 482 99 27 0
ODI 0 3 101 424 800 413 108 0
CDI 0 1 89 754 2308 4974 6244 220
VCDI 0 0 0 140 1489 4921 11001 4423

Date: 2016-06-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1917 1853 1380 102 100 0 0
OW 0 44 203 754 171 104 0 0
VODI 0 13 98 802 642 28 0 0
ODI 0 2 26 464 1267 353 21 0
CDI 0 0 3 505 2802 5753 3428 71
VCDI 0 0 0 62 1376 3891 9912 7719
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1835 1547 1504 150 149 0 0
OW 0 81 233 463 200 43 0 0
VODI 0 38 196 539 548 141 9 0
ODI 0 17 111 495 1053 563 36 0
CDI 0 5 96 833 2727 5594 6884 2195
VCDI 0 0 0 133 1682 3739 6432 5595


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