Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2016-06-09

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-06-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66509 23660 5847 3398 353 71 2 0
OW 34 75 166 1632 710 36 5 0
VODI 0 31 74 1169 1997 235 28 0
ODI 0 13 57 479 2038 1207 203 0
CDI 0 4 163 760 2359 6037 3718 15
VCDI 0 0 1 391 1697 10102 38259 13513
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-06-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64360 24727 6898 3755 510 62 0 0
OW 31 85 246 1478 916 86 5 0
VODI 0 44 111 1049 1760 389 47 0
ODI 0 37 90 521 1886 1418 193 0
CDI 0 18 182 791 2838 6925 3824 14
VCDI 0 0 0 443 3165 9656 32013 16475
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-06-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67408 22861 6385 3670 466 26 0 0
OW 31 35 211 1823 598 24 4 0
VODI 0 3 94 1439 1816 115 9 0
ODI 0 6 103 520 2674 1245 61 0
CDI 0 6 51 639 3815 7619 2929 0
VCDI 0 0 0 50 1415 11180 29096 18621
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-06-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65097 23286 7872 4784 519 14 1 0
OW 29 59 175 1963 776 31 4 0
VODI 0 12 104 1434 1838 224 15 0
ODI 0 4 101 593 2544 946 110 0
CDI 0 9 73 772 4205 7467 3907 12
VCDI 0 0 0 341 2121 10903 34384 10319
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65097 23286 7867 5085 641 13 2 0
OW 29 56 168 1674 779 45 3 0
VODI 0 15 110 1413 1755 263 14 0
ODI 0 4 93 597 2499 942 244 0
CDI 0 9 87 782 4260 7464 3723 14
VCDI 0 0 0 336 2069 10858 34435 10317

Date: 2016-06-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65401 25088 6577 4474 506 35 3 0
OW 28 68 252 1920 832 82 4 0
VODI 0 6 134 1353 1833 394 24 0
ODI 0 2 110 680 2211 1088 311 0
CDI 0 0 50 702 4457 7708 6390 9
VCDI 0 0 0 303 2218 10195 24376 17224
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65412 25099 6600 4850 724 46 3 0
OW 17 56 223 1628 768 114 3 0
VODI 0 7 128 1296 1728 433 37 0
ODI 0 2 104 628 2183 1048 334 0
CDI 0 0 68 715 4366 7955 6406 7
VCDI 0 0 0 315 2288 9906 24325 17226

Date: 2016-06-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63246 26740 8008 4195 286 29 5 0
OW 28 27 361 2073 459 18 3 0
VODI 0 3 114 2034 1543 46 13 0
ODI 0 0 2 655 3906 694 35 0
CDI 0 0 0 374 3872 12275 1584 2
VCDI 0 0 0 64 1560 8059 33143 11592
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63258 26723 7937 5154 795 39 6 0
OW 16 39 235 1435 825 91 4 0
VODI 0 7 168 1139 1863 620 92 0
ODI 0 1 89 614 1880 1215 258 0
CDI 0 0 56 801 3666 10443 7356 114
VCDI 0 0 0 252 2597 8713 27067 11480

Date: 2016-06-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62711 24635 10650 5152 421 30 7 0
OW 24 48 352 2072 552 10 3 0
VODI 0 6 114 1455 2097 147 23 0
ODI 0 1 10 656 2739 1336 70 0
CDI 0 0 1 429 3809 10245 5787 0
VCDI 0 0 0 109 1785 9289 32549 7724
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62720 24598 10431 5815 968 77 9 0
OW 15 67 318 1216 841 158 7 0
VODI 0 21 188 1121 1805 735 80 0
ODI 0 3 101 610 1765 1388 396 0
CDI 0 1 89 865 3524 9666 11517 491
VCDI 0 0 0 246 2500 9033 26430 7233

Date: 2016-06-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61107 30919 8017 4115 242 123 3 0
OW 24 74 313 2117 439 126 2 0
VODI 0 13 113 1551 2114 251 32 0
ODI 0 2 26 625 2539 1330 149 0
CDI 0 0 3 539 4284 11392 5885 71
VCDI 0 0 0 147 1806 9761 26519 10275
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61117 30829 7573 4663 758 255 3 0
OW 14 119 430 1213 837 219 6 0
VODI 0 38 262 1228 1513 676 80 0
ODI 0 17 111 787 1998 1521 475 0
CDI 0 5 96 969 3902 10621 14394 2532
VCDI 0 0 0 234 2416 9691 17632 7814


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