Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2016-06-02

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-06-06

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 170 283 189 11 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 90 29 3 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 55 73 13 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 180 23 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 330 750 60 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 20 2498 16695 15428
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 170 283 209 14 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 60 35 7 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 55 77 17 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 12 133 52 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 284 606 207 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 100 2605 16545 15426

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 3 24 62 0 1 0
ODI 0 7 6 18 62 13 3 0
CDI 0 9 7 35 100 350 199 0
VCDI 0 0 0 21 85 365 1485 277
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 11 45 0 1 0
ODI 0 1 6 13 47 15 10 0
CDI 0 15 10 39 88 309 340 0
VCDI 0 0 0 36 126 404 1337 277

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 382 693 209 1 0 0 0
OW 0 34 75 113 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 22 48 117 46 0 0 0
ODI 0 8 87 70 234 12 0 0
CDI 0 0 43 253 583 2157 47 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 29 2578 2106 26
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 382 671 238 3 0 0 0
OW 0 28 47 89 38 0 0 0
VODI 0 24 53 74 66 0 0 0
ODI 0 12 59 40 129 14 0 0
CDI 0 0 116 265 495 1578 48 0
VCDI 0 0 0 56 171 3155 2105 26

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 359 186 9 0 0 0 0
OW 0 19 119 90 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 32 202 25 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 130 297 22 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 29 258 1070 71 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 7 393 2147 188
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 365 204 28 0 0 0 0
OW 0 12 64 66 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 36 130 45 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 27 98 155 70 0 0
CDI 0 0 7 138 361 971 126 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 23 444 2092 188

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 33 11 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 52 87 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 45 1239 745 13 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 838 2102 1930 150
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 20 38 41 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 110 417 587 27 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1720 2220 1916 150

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 20 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 23 12 9 1 0
ODI 0 0 1 25 61 76 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 117 500 728 244 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 468 280 2311 442
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 9 1 2 3 0
ODI 0 0 0 30 39 60 5 0
CDI 0 0 2 61 184 589 303 0
VCDI 0 0 0 85 818 442 2251 442

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 309 683 243 53 0 0 0
OW 0 0 26 412 93 0 4 0
VODI 0 0 0 496 428 2 3 0
ODI 0 0 0 20 1339 277 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 263 1082 59 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 30 503 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 309 695 425 187 0 0 0
OW 0 0 14 446 203 0 2 0
VODI 0 0 0 190 761 117 7 0
ODI 0 0 0 107 538 625 16 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 487 644 222 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 5 327 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4472 5350 927 390 2 0 0 0
OW 0 2 3 52 41 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 24 41 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 19 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4472 5350 927 386 15 0 0 0
OW 0 2 3 69 65 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 11 17 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 7 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5102 3318 538 368 6 0 0 0
OW 0 0 6 189 100 3 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 115 300 2 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 11 305 17 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 68 404 52 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 107 682 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5102 3318 515 417 156 3 0 0
OW 0 0 29 149 148 0 1 0
VODI 0 0 0 109 265 7 6 0
ODI 0 0 0 8 167 59 30 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 43 464 696 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7321 4073 685 752 18 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 53 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 17 36 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 23 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7321 4073 685 793 28 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 28 27 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 1 32 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 992 651 227 3 0 0 0
OW 0 15 27 282 26 0 1 0
VODI 0 10 12 278 181 0 2 0
ODI 0 3 1 21 267 69 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 47 357 130 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 71 2040 77
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 987 578 278 24 0 1 0
OW 0 5 91 231 60 2 4 0
VODI 0 14 11 221 190 46 17 0
ODI 0 12 9 64 196 182 75 0
CDI 0 2 2 17 56 233 1521 57
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 34 561 20

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 121 451 420 42 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 150 85 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 213 230 23 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 84 313 171 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 85 546 724 152 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 204 916 3493 153
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 121 450 462 56 1 0 0
OW 0 0 1 79 139 14 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 157 187 107 6 0
ODI 0 0 0 116 190 229 26 0
CDI 0 0 0 136 442 608 899 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 406 876 2717 153

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7012 8624 1933 567 202 40 0 0
OW 0 0 0 177 111 7 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 90 210 14 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 13 319 86 13 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 158 317 45 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 34 233 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7012 8624 1933 701 278 40 0 0
OW 0 0 0 115 185 29 1 0
VODI 0 0 0 21 288 101 28 0
ODI 0 0 0 4 153 172 105 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 77 146 153 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 22 10 4 0


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