Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2016-06-02

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-05-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63773 22990 3917 2134 262 37 0 0
OW 50 7 77 728 455 63 0 0
VODI 0 0 42 271 877 74 1 0
ODI 0 0 8 140 955 334 18 0
CDI 0 0 0 61 636 2081 226 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1246 5490 2147
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-05-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67460 20492 3005 2197 257 58 4 0
OW 47 31 75 617 476 59 0 0
VODI 0 6 87 306 815 137 10 0
ODI 0 0 33 128 928 333 47 0
CDI 0 0 7 74 592 1719 637 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 819 7130 514
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-05-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62009 22557 6665 2274 240 29 0 0
OW 36 0 31 823 279 34 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 420 825 30 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 45 1218 279 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 447 1714 471 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 643 5713 2306
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-06-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65382 21018 5162 2209 230 43 5 0
OW 37 5 16 749 312 25 1 0
VODI 0 0 0 405 1042 67 2 0
ODI 0 0 0 32 888 284 31 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 250 1355 1241 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 979 6036 1294
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65383 21018 5160 2296 224 52 6 0
OW 36 5 18 674 300 16 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 391 950 66 2 0
ODI 0 0 0 34 1008 273 40 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 240 1340 1286 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1006 5982 1294

Date: 2016-06-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66299 21578 3619 2473 261 74 0 0
OW 41 0 7 661 486 24 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 321 1008 126 8 0
ODI 0 0 0 18 594 308 60 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 173 1072 1732 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 935 5565 1655
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66301 21578 3603 2546 287 71 0 0
OW 39 0 23 533 461 24 1 0
VODI 0 0 0 367 921 101 7 0
ODI 0 0 0 29 668 334 95 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 185 1059 1705 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 950 5557 1655

Date: 2016-06-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65516 21873 4465 2231 189 40 0 0
OW 31 9 15 728 242 11 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 489 706 13 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 15 880 130 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 264 1220 209 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 710 4698 4413
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65516 21873 4399 2507 401 42 0 0
OW 31 9 81 564 426 21 1 0
VODI 0 0 0 354 723 119 26 0
ODI 0 0 0 38 508 343 170 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 219 986 1946 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 613 2767 4411

Date: 2016-06-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67064 19817 4994 2521 269 3 0 0
OW 29 6 5 798 259 12 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 403 641 18 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 48 585 84 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 524 1398 517 3
VCDI 0 0 0 0 17 966 4680 3432
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67073 19819 4908 2860 473 2 0 0
OW 20 4 88 516 406 20 2 0
VODI 0 0 3 337 562 152 14 0
ODI 0 0 0 51 499 382 130 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 339 1280 1444 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 16 645 3614 3433

Date: 2016-06-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66147 19796 5637 2937 270 13 0 0
OW 28 6 59 826 271 15 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 379 500 39 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 76 487 159 28 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 460 1314 911 4
VCDI 0 0 0 0 96 423 3975 4237
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66158 19797 5564 3429 592 25 0 0
OW 17 5 127 365 272 77 9 0
VODI 0 0 7 363 396 164 88 0
ODI 0 0 0 62 415 332 349 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 365 1045 1447 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 44 320 3022 4241


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