Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2016-06-02

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-05-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63773 25473 5225 2937 283 37 0 0
OW 50 89 294 1302 633 74 3 0
VODI 0 47 204 787 1518 173 17 0
ODI 0 29 88 554 1797 786 78 0
CDI 0 20 131 536 2669 5849 1256 1
VCDI 0 0 1 159 591 11844 39120 18620
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-05-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67460 22883 4428 3019 283 59 4 0
OW 47 129 294 1217 681 68 9 0
VODI 0 85 251 914 1442 285 45 0
ODI 0 17 129 760 1800 859 140 0
CDI 0 54 123 708 2658 5710 1953 20
VCDI 0 0 18 206 796 9784 44366 13344
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-05-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62009 25269 8423 3359 266 29 0 0
OW 36 70 182 1712 463 50 5 0
VODI 0 27 81 1272 1638 111 17 0
ODI 0 25 26 445 2728 859 79 0
CDI 0 10 107 599 2294 6336 1419 6
VCDI 0 0 0 89 676 7966 37376 20989
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-06-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65382 23360 7321 3360 312 43 5 0
OW 37 63 189 1611 579 48 6 0
VODI 0 21 92 1186 1923 197 24 0
ODI 0 18 41 446 2202 1059 162 5
CDI 0 15 144 643 2102 6189 2954 2
VCDI 0 0 1 170 1424 11354 40695 11663
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65383 23373 7345 3562 357 57 6 0
OW 36 52 173 1468 549 41 6 0
VODI 0 20 91 1129 1838 199 20 2
ODI 0 22 37 449 2258 1298 199 4
CDI 0 10 142 659 2108 5853 2916 1
VCDI 0 0 0 149 1432 11442 40699 11663

Date: 2016-06-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66299 23843 5803 3646 400 84 0 0
OW 41 65 161 1524 860 56 7 0
VODI 0 44 76 1069 1961 344 22 0
ODI 0 28 61 517 1936 1344 161 0
CDI 0 5 192 774 2417 6391 3964 2
VCDI 0 0 0 595 2852 11521 31773 16210
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66301 23858 5817 3879 486 87 1 0
OW 39 57 161 1352 839 59 8 0
VODI 0 36 68 1024 1906 316 20 0
ODI 0 29 51 502 1937 1512 289 0
CDI 0 5 191 819 2383 6138 3964 13
VCDI 0 0 5 549 2875 11628 31645 16199

Date: 2016-06-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65516 23911 7030 3374 338 40 0 0
OW 31 77 256 1629 505 14 5 0
VODI 0 32 96 1687 1655 63 8 0
ODI 0 18 96 446 3506 769 38 0
CDI 0 9 50 569 4093 8689 1072 0
VCDI 0 0 0 28 1658 9374 33625 16741
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65516 23912 6941 3937 761 44 1 0
OW 31 54 249 1332 906 52 8 0
VODI 0 39 100 989 1974 400 69 0
ODI 0 25 101 512 1792 1523 269 0
CDI 0 17 137 777 2934 6735 4542 59
VCDI 0 0 0 186 3388 10195 29859 16682

Date: 2016-06-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67064 22034 7461 4136 509 4 0 0
OW 29 64 181 2025 636 26 3 0
VODI 0 11 107 1391 1818 176 5 0
ODI 0 3 92 562 2642 1020 90 0
CDI 0 7 71 683 4228 7147 3454 3
VCDI 0 0 0 227 1683 10383 31930 15143
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67073 21973 7319 4868 937 5 1 0
OW 20 83 203 1303 1050 66 9 0
VODI 0 40 111 1005 1886 651 48 0
ODI 0 16 117 587 1707 1257 491 0
CDI 0 7 161 892 3124 6124 5461 64
VCDI 0 0 1 369 2812 10653 29472 15082

Date: 2016-06-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66147 22444 7858 4741 606 21 4 0
OW 28 57 234 1883 867 54 2 0
VODI 0 9 115 1274 1837 361 15 0
ODI 0 3 109 627 2288 1116 271 0
CDI 0 0 68 655 4039 8098 5034 7
VCDI 0 0 0 314 2040 9530 32120 12172
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66158 22387 7768 5787 1440 72 5 0
OW 17 78 238 957 1222 238 15 0
VODI 0 34 112 945 1676 795 220 0
ODI 0 13 110 540 1374 1241 938 0
CDI 0 1 151 850 2617 5895 6589 31
VCDI 0 0 5 415 3348 10939 29679 12148


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