Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2016-05-26

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-05-30

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 423 388 71 15 0 0 0
OW 0 0 69 100 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 7 112 39 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 44 144 26 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 170 736 82 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 2525 18558 13368
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 401 307 80 16 0 0 0
OW 0 17 51 41 15 2 0 0
VODI 0 5 81 52 30 15 0 0
ODI 0 0 21 104 68 29 1 0
CDI 0 0 4 57 246 655 246 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 2594 18393 13368

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 0 1 0 0
CDI 0 6 7 34 3 54 67 0
VCDI 0 0 1 11 7 215 1530 1194
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 2 21 4
CDI 0 6 7 33 3 44 252 2
VCDI 0 0 1 15 7 224 1324 1188

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 694 514 114 5 0 0 0
OW 0 32 78 80 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 22 41 103 45 0 0 0
ODI 0 11 60 99 232 18 1 0
CDI 0 0 61 216 513 564 30 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 24 2507 3906 3
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 652 467 143 14 0 0 0
OW 0 28 51 50 28 0 0 0
VODI 0 13 44 63 75 1 0 0
ODI 0 18 32 67 97 8 0 0
CDI 0 48 129 161 430 429 26 0
VCDI 0 0 31 128 184 2651 3911 3

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 172 295 79 0 0 0 0
OW 0 18 71 122 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 59 208 45 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 83 288 27 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 20 160 954 132 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 310 2487 121
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 143 187 64 0 0 0 0
OW 0 25 63 81 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 22 87 134 96 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 77 140 182 103 0 0
CDI 0 0 11 93 211 824 232 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 354 2387 121

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 13 16 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 11 46 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 160 333 76 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 75 563 3944 2000
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 4 12 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 8 22 29 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 80 218 195 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 182 646 3825 2000

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 6 4 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 29 13 8 14 0
CDI 0 0 0 89 179 127 56 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 84 753 3274 687
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 3 3 8 2
ODI 0 0 0 10 9 15 19 16
CDI 0 0 0 91 97 103 139 45
VCDI 0 0 0 23 171 770 3178 624

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 392 273 154 1 0 0 0
OW 0 0 13 240 42 0 1 0
VODI 0 0 0 476 277 28 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 88 804 170 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 31 628 1851 70 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 35 241 510 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 392 208 113 35 0 0 0
OW 0 0 69 150 65 20 1 0
VODI 0 0 9 325 226 130 3 0
ODI 0 0 0 245 340 238 25 0
CDI 0 0 0 149 1001 1557 410 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 120 345 145 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4316 6090 503 159 7 0 0 0
OW 0 0 9 63 30 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 21 63 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 28 24 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 2 6 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4316 6077 475 179 53 2 0 0
OW 0 13 12 29 54 17 0 0
VODI 0 0 23 13 9 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 17 4 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 10 7 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3605 4730 626 267 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 10 185 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 150 214 3 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 10 575 38 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 183 611 72 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 16 389 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3605 4730 617 331 8 0 0 0
OW 0 0 15 151 44 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 4 97 270 6 4 0
ODI 0 0 0 33 346 18 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 309 638 290 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 5 168 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7644 4049 478 578 6 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 96 29 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 8 56 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 37 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 5 1 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7644 4049 478 679 38 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 3 57 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 36 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 741 446 202 4 0 0 0
OW 0 9 16 235 15 0 1 0
VODI 0 2 1 181 203 0 10 0
ODI 0 0 1 38 433 109 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 41 74 673 120 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 22 261 1895 57
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 702 416 189 11 0 0 0
OW 0 28 42 172 33 0 11 0
VODI 0 22 5 194 202 58 18 0
ODI 0 0 1 60 301 85 22 0
CDI 0 0 0 82 184 587 178 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 20 313 1809 57

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 288 383 371 6 0 0 0
OW 0 1 23 198 25 1 0 0
VODI 0 1 6 155 161 19 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 52 225 138 21 0
CDI 0 0 0 45 126 475 150 0
VCDI 0 0 0 23 108 690 4028 867
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 288 384 454 45 0 0 0
OW 0 0 9 86 64 14 1 0
VODI 0 1 14 71 101 73 13 0
ODI 0 1 5 107 99 132 42 0
CDI 0 0 0 71 170 377 287 0
VCDI 0 0 0 55 172 727 3857 867

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7456 8029 1228 759 148 44 2 0
OW 0 0 8 383 108 44 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 242 304 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 9 459 117 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 185 357 100 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 17 202 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7456 8029 1234 926 300 49 2 0
OW 0 0 2 184 137 43 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 173 251 82 7 0
ODI 0 0 0 67 270 121 30 0
CDI 0 0 0 40 231 251 119 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 15 37 150 0


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