Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2016-05-26

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-05-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70016 18808 1967 1249 201 16 0 0
OW 52 63 145 629 259 16 0 0
VODI 0 1 79 355 550 105 1 0
ODI 0 0 33 160 677 459 35 0
CDI 0 0 1 147 494 1720 891 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 35 900 4490 4546
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-05-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71874 16987 1913 1353 221 30 0 0
OW 50 36 87 661 296 35 0 0
VODI 0 5 73 347 701 184 1 0
ODI 0 0 30 122 758 427 93 0
CDI 0 0 0 128 516 2258 972 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 50 886 3411 4595
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-05-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59458 21491 9360 2146 309 10 0 0
OW 42 0 46 705 298 16 0 0
VODI 0 0 6 352 941 24 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 101 872 328 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 69 514 2475 311 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 7 1783 5914 1520
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-05-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65636 21853 3266 1963 186 26 0 0
OW 42 6 56 769 364 56 0 0
VODI 0 0 24 285 952 46 2 0
ODI 0 0 6 109 881 340 17 0
CDI 0 0 0 71 843 2256 148 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1662 6460 775
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65636 21856 3258 2070 226 25 0 0
OW 42 3 59 674 375 62 0 0
VODI 0 0 26 267 903 28 1 0
ODI 0 0 9 106 852 334 19 0
CDI 0 0 0 80 870 2258 157 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1679 6450 775

Date: 2016-05-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59518 25274 6047 2083 369 32 0 0
OW 41 31 65 578 569 64 0 0
VODI 0 11 55 295 820 112 7 0
ODI 0 3 23 121 949 355 30 0
CDI 0 0 13 80 563 1747 493 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 929 6976 847
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59518 25268 6041 2154 533 38 0 0
OW 41 30 73 499 431 65 0 0
VODI 0 17 50 293 778 88 7 0
ODI 0 4 24 131 878 328 29 0
CDI 0 0 15 80 650 1783 514 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 937 6956 847

Date: 2016-05-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64510 23334 3448 1939 172 44 2 0
OW 37 0 98 844 180 44 0 0
VODI 0 0 7 570 732 15 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 62 1489 224 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 480 1832 257 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 563 6650 1556
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64510 23312 3343 2300 377 51 2 0
OW 37 17 100 497 312 56 0 0
VODI 0 5 85 403 742 148 9 0
ODI 0 0 21 166 899 222 27 0
CDI 0 0 4 56 720 1686 717 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 559 6158 1556

Date: 2016-06-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65595 21957 4181 2032 155 41 9 0
OW 36 7 16 802 270 38 1 0
VODI 0 0 3 377 907 42 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 42 1082 258 21 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 348 1551 873 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 493 6419 1539
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65595 21925 4006 2200 377 70 9 0
OW 36 29 113 469 327 36 2 0
VODI 0 10 65 390 812 187 20 0
ODI 0 0 15 151 797 213 95 0
CDI 0 0 1 47 449 1428 1171 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 489 6027 1539

Date: 2016-06-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66509 21386 3683 2263 227 68 2 0
OW 34 7 17 766 338 20 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 400 1064 82 5 0
ODI 0 0 0 23 705 308 55 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 229 1146 1544 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1158 5507 1553
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66509 21369 3507 2383 477 78 2 0
OW 34 24 153 481 381 85 3 0
VODI 0 0 38 450 726 161 96 0
ODI 0 0 2 131 695 194 152 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 284 1264 2021 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1000 4839 1553


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