Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2016-05-26

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-05-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 941 740 327 6 0 0 0
OW 0 136 159 198 36 0 0 0
VODI 0 81 114 272 148 13 0 0
ODI 0 48 44 236 317 82 8 0
CDI 0 33 105 255 915 1309 394 0
VCDI 0 52 123 330 927 3679 18314 15524
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-05-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1199 712 315 7 0 0 0
OW 0 130 183 239 37 1 0 0
VODI 0 104 103 269 202 35 9 0
ODI 0 80 50 236 317 106 46 0
CDI 0 97 118 353 884 1000 524 0
VCDI 0 97 124 393 967 4207 18870 13852
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-05-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1513 933 548 16 0 0 0
OW 0 90 124 423 67 4 0 0
VODI 0 62 130 354 285 33 8 0
ODI 0 81 57 278 442 171 18 0
CDI 0 11 56 356 1050 1540 421 6
VCDI 0 0 1 124 425 4823 20640 10776
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-05-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1592 985 644 32 0 0 0
OW 0 73 136 418 97 7 1 0
VODI 0 53 137 381 329 55 16 0
ODI 0 38 58 310 454 193 48 1
CDI 0 21 113 416 1098 1374 814 5
VCDI 0 0 0 157 400 5102 21877 8431
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1594 998 743 57 3 0 0
OW 0 65 125 346 83 8 0 0
VODI 0 52 127 355 339 49 18 0
ODI 0 42 69 296 434 189 56 3
CDI 0 24 108 422 1051 1396 870 3
VCDI 0 0 2 164 446 5086 21812 8431

Date: 2016-05-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1610 1028 587 23 3 0 0
OW 0 78 176 403 124 5 5 0
VODI 0 60 126 376 352 49 25 0
ODI 0 28 96 364 479 260 58 0
CDI 0 18 130 488 1036 1973 767 0
VCDI 0 0 12 180 326 5042 21866 7713
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1619 1058 694 63 3 0 0
OW 0 65 144 302 115 9 5 0
VODI 0 62 131 361 341 49 21 0
ODI 0 22 86 356 440 285 54 0
CDI 0 26 144 511 1038 1955 790 0
VCDI 0 0 5 174 343 5031 21851 7713

Date: 2016-05-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1683 1354 658 19 0 0 0
OW 0 60 187 602 54 1 1 0
VODI 0 25 107 591 398 23 11 0
ODI 0 11 61 277 892 265 38 0
CDI 0 6 68 361 888 2537 541 0
VCDI 0 0 1 35 166 5221 21836 6888
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1573 1187 744 108 0 0 0
OW 0 81 147 300 124 17 12 0
VODI 0 58 150 380 329 107 33 0
ODI 0 19 115 412 450 303 91 4
CDI 0 54 147 486 1004 2105 990 2
VCDI 0 0 32 202 402 5515 21301 6882

Date: 2016-06-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1824 1465 869 29 0 0 0
OW 0 85 130 504 148 2 6 0
VODI 0 29 84 370 449 40 17 0
ODI 0 26 30 243 569 281 63 0
CDI 0 11 116 382 799 2428 960 1
VCDI 0 0 0 78 325 4748 20124 8631
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1646 1278 672 156 0 2 0
OW 0 108 142 297 124 29 14 0
VODI 0 65 120 424 268 152 36 0
ODI 0 59 96 377 378 379 170 1
CDI 0 92 117 479 1033 2088 1404 0
VCDI 0 5 72 197 360 4851 19544 8631

Date: 2016-06-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1412 1634 918 68 3 0 0
OW 0 67 137 437 211 13 5 0
VODI 0 29 69 362 433 97 22 0
ODI 0 13 51 243 594 374 115 0
CDI 0 4 161 446 1054 2934 1621 2
VCDI 0 0 1 113 376 4593 18854 8400
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1343 1494 756 212 12 5 0
OW 0 63 139 319 143 60 13 0
VODI 0 32 102 402 353 186 57 0
ODI 0 23 86 397 505 523 206 0
CDI 0 64 143 445 1129 2613 2075 33
VCDI 0 0 89 200 394 4620 18261 8369


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