Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2016-05-26

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-05-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70016 20612 2855 1667 213 16 0 0
OW 52 211 373 878 324 16 0 0
VODI 0 82 227 714 806 139 1 0
ODI 0 48 77 483 1228 707 56 0
CDI 0 33 106 418 1834 4050 1800 0
VCDI 0 52 123 339 1370 7718 37308 30096
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-05-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71874 19023 2820 1781 233 30 0 0
OW 50 178 350 1012 412 36 0 0
VODI 0 109 204 752 1179 240 10 0
ODI 0 80 80 442 1409 640 143 0
CDI 0 97 118 523 1869 4360 1940 0
VCDI 0 97 124 394 1724 8814 36314 27587
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-05-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59458 23730 10689 2909 325 10 0 0
OW 42 90 170 1326 407 20 0 0
VODI 0 62 136 823 1517 73 8 0
ODI 0 81 57 411 1855 636 28 0
CDI 0 11 56 430 2198 5565 871 6
VCDI 0 0 1 124 815 11483 42526 18099
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-05-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65636 24375 4572 2735 219 26 0 0
OW 42 79 247 1336 510 63 1 0
VODI 0 53 165 836 1566 115 18 0
ODI 0 38 64 506 1786 683 68 1
CDI 0 21 113 505 2883 5446 1140 5
VCDI 0 0 0 157 667 11183 40776 18412
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65636 24380 4580 2955 296 28 0 0
OW 42 68 235 1171 511 70 0 0
VODI 0 52 158 780 1515 100 19 0
ODI 0 42 78 485 1716 660 76 3
CDI 0 24 108 520 2884 5420 1223 3
VCDI 0 0 2 164 709 11238 40685 18412

Date: 2016-05-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59518 27760 7405 2859 394 35 0 0
OW 41 111 300 1128 777 69 5 0
VODI 0 71 191 847 1471 225 33 0
ODI 0 31 119 600 1802 869 100 0
CDI 0 18 143 623 2617 5881 1593 0
VCDI 0 0 12 182 673 10242 43650 14653
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59518 27765 7444 3026 626 41 0 0
OW 41 95 258 973 611 75 5 0
VODI 0 79 194 822 1380 212 30 0
ODI 0 26 110 594 1684 873 94 0
CDI 0 26 159 650 2774 5949 1749 3
VCDI 0 0 5 174 659 10171 43503 14650

Date: 2016-05-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64510 25934 5135 2754 192 44 2 0
OW 37 60 304 1702 276 45 2 0
VODI 0 25 114 1675 1427 73 12 0
ODI 0 11 61 468 3284 681 58 0
CDI 0 6 68 488 2388 6742 955 0
VCDI 0 0 1 38 358 8098 40723 18297
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64510 25789 4774 3158 520 51 2 0
OW 37 111 321 947 504 97 13 0
VODI 0 63 267 1126 1311 395 53 2
ODI 0 19 138 858 1740 784 163 20
CDI 0 54 151 801 2972 5690 2374 47
VCDI 0 0 32 235 878 8666 39147 18228

Date: 2016-06-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65595 24672 6053 3138 200 41 9 0
OW 36 92 148 1696 526 49 8 0
VODI 0 29 87 1131 1785 144 18 0
ODI 0 26 30 457 2359 956 120 0
CDI 0 11 116 607 2074 5905 2473 1
VCDI 0 0 0 106 857 7935 42129 15429
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65595 24452 5518 2965 606 88 12 0
OW 36 147 405 895 585 128 24 0
VODI 0 75 210 1192 1376 534 90 0
ODI 0 59 111 945 1580 937 381 1
CDI 0 92 118 877 2644 5172 3598 0
VCDI 0 5 72 261 1010 8171 40652 15429

Date: 2016-06-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66509 23660 5847 3398 353 71 2 0
OW 34 75 166 1632 710 36 5 0
VODI 0 31 74 1169 1997 235 28 0
ODI 0 13 57 479 2038 1207 203 0
CDI 0 4 163 760 2359 6037 3718 15
VCDI 0 0 1 391 1697 10102 38259 13513
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66509 23568 5259 3216 843 99 24 0
OW 34 94 483 897 708 186 41 0
VODI 0 34 234 1235 1442 526 212 0
ODI 0 23 100 1043 1682 1138 451 0
CDI 0 64 143 1012 2757 5766 4731 34
VCDI 0 0 89 426 1722 9973 36756 13494


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