Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2016-05-19

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-05-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 367 368 110 0 0 0 0
OW 0 156 219 158 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 139 130 284 68 2 0 0
ODI 0 47 98 225 167 42 16 0
CDI 0 26 99 314 642 679 418 14
VCDI 0 0 38 211 949 5693 17409 16771
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-05-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 340 251 95 0 0 0 0
OW 0 266 201 156 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 116 211 276 80 2 0 0
ODI 0 44 102 269 212 67 5 0
CDI 0 41 79 342 734 877 613 22
VCDI 0 0 38 246 1332 5115 18638 15094
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-05-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 726 692 224 0 0 0 0
OW 0 77 110 304 25 0 0 0
VODI 0 51 111 248 133 13 0 0
ODI 0 12 76 188 406 86 5 0
CDI 0 0 21 255 1208 1695 274 0
VCDI 0 0 15 208 748 3851 20366 13738
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-05-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 829 703 332 2 0 0 0
OW 0 141 130 202 39 0 0 0
VODI 0 80 126 243 146 7 1 0
ODI 0 44 52 209 352 76 10 0
CDI 0 22 100 250 1057 1411 290 0
VCDI 0 44 92 275 918 3871 20228 13584
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 824 710 357 8 0 0 0
OW 0 131 125 164 24 0 0 0
VODI 0 93 119 260 155 4 0 0
ODI 0 40 50 202 339 78 9 0
CDI 0 25 99 252 1052 1230 334 0
VCDI 0 47 100 276 936 4053 20186 13584

Date: 2016-05-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1070 750 306 9 0 0 0
OW 0 134 179 222 33 0 0 0
VODI 0 81 103 282 161 39 2 0
ODI 0 55 47 249 296 126 19 0
CDI 0 57 124 279 832 1136 404 0
VCDI 0 77 102 347 910 3399 18918 15118
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1082 768 320 13 0 0 0
OW 0 115 150 173 33 1 0 0
VODI 0 91 113 307 134 32 3 0
ODI 0 57 46 266 311 99 20 0
CDI 0 46 114 285 799 1052 434 0
VCDI 0 83 114 334 951 3516 18886 15118

Date: 2016-05-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1542 879 307 15 0 0 0
OW 0 148 209 302 41 0 0 0
VODI 0 86 104 397 236 12 2 0
ODI 0 100 99 298 529 96 12 0
CDI 0 22 32 329 1031 1706 159 0
VCDI 0 0 1 99 518 4078 19380 13097
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1330 736 312 25 0 0 0
OW 0 116 158 166 39 4 3 0
VODI 0 109 120 280 185 21 15 0
ODI 0 87 65 236 315 142 34 0
CDI 0 106 123 390 907 1297 540 0
VCDI 0 150 122 348 899 4428 18961 13097

Date: 2016-05-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1612 972 598 15 0 0 0
OW 0 90 135 398 95 3 0 0
VODI 0 74 139 355 322 39 13 0
ODI 0 46 66 290 417 222 26 0
CDI 0 19 87 373 1025 1408 698 6
VCDI 0 0 0 128 445 4311 20094 11345
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1392 732 471 29 0 2 0
OW 0 156 98 237 49 4 6 0
VODI 0 80 157 283 216 30 18 0
ODI 0 52 146 251 321 227 65 0
CDI 0 73 113 530 1038 1348 955 6
VCDI 0 88 153 370 666 4374 19785 11345

Date: 2016-05-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1543 1026 646 21 0 0 0
OW 0 81 155 410 115 11 3 0
VODI 0 47 140 353 354 65 16 0
ODI 0 29 80 320 446 225 55 0
CDI 0 20 131 452 1049 1702 812 1
VCDI 0 0 1 159 303 6373 19511 9211
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1299 781 568 73 3 6 0
OW 0 169 111 227 82 13 9 0
VODI 0 90 166 270 237 67 39 0
ODI 0 66 148 300 351 265 149 0
CDI 0 41 161 524 1037 1472 849 1
VCDI 0 55 166 451 508 6556 19345 9211


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