Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2016-05-19

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-05-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70385 18328 2728 1382 216 12 0 0
OW 58 190 411 824 210 69 0 0
VODI 0 164 195 740 639 143 13 0
ODI 0 68 115 564 830 495 49 0
CDI 0 38 135 508 1619 2778 1279 26
VCDI 0 0 54 335 1366 9329 30843 39910
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-05-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70550 18613 2404 1338 289 7 0 0
OW 54 332 435 770 268 47 0 0
VODI 0 155 298 828 646 150 4 0
ODI 0 75 192 547 676 562 77 18
CDI 0 66 163 509 1401 3066 1667 93
VCDI 0 2 72 435 1868 8531 36086 33754
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-05-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71541 18819 2854 1531 224 16 0 0
OW 52 137 314 940 214 19 0 0
VODI 0 56 201 742 698 66 0 0
ODI 0 12 99 459 1104 494 36 4
CDI 0 0 26 371 2122 4431 780 10
VCDI 0 0 15 224 1205 8649 37973 30610
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-05-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71718 18936 2764 1601 194 9 0 0
OW 52 207 340 826 329 17 0 0
VODI 0 86 254 670 754 112 2 0
ODI 0 44 85 432 1077 663 59 0
CDI 0 22 105 437 1985 4122 1490 3
VCDI 0 44 92 285 1480 7865 40023 27864
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71718 18929 2747 1609 223 11 0 0
OW 52 201 360 796 293 15 0 0
VODI 0 97 251 690 759 117 0 0
ODI 0 40 80 439 1060 691 45 0
CDI 0 25 102 430 1981 3854 1550 0
VCDI 0 47 100 287 1503 8100 39979 27867

Date: 2016-05-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71098 19509 2980 1668 234 42 0 0
OW 51 216 371 903 340 31 0 0
VODI 0 86 237 743 991 200 3 0
ODI 0 55 78 473 1394 679 75 0
CDI 0 57 124 447 1956 4140 1669 3
VCDI 0 77 102 357 1467 7742 38357 28093
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71098 19522 2978 1746 281 46 0 0
OW 51 200 359 779 313 30 0 0
VODI 0 92 254 771 955 188 3 0
ODI 0 57 73 496 1390 664 56 0
CDI 0 46 114 456 1909 3792 1841 7
VCDI 0 83 114 343 1534 8114 38204 28089

Date: 2016-05-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71230 20141 3299 1603 197 0 0 0
OW 50 148 308 1216 276 2 0 0
VODI 0 86 115 1061 1254 61 2 0
ODI 0 100 99 411 2156 529 26 0
CDI 0 22 32 385 2073 6164 566 0
VCDI 0 0 1 99 937 8254 39376 24769
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71230 19891 2982 1732 416 0 0 0
OW 50 150 333 888 453 20 3 0
VODI 0 113 195 793 1252 182 19 0
ODI 0 87 99 442 1248 855 120 0
CDI 0 106 123 559 1805 4535 2005 0
VCDI 0 150 122 361 1719 9418 37823 24769

Date: 2016-05-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63116 24762 6597 2688 224 14 0 0
OW 42 94 186 1345 470 36 0 0
VODI 0 74 158 784 1620 96 13 0
ODI 0 46 69 429 1723 701 36 0
CDI 0 19 87 444 2353 5670 1085 6
VCDI 0 0 0 128 750 10515 39976 20692
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63116 24531 6091 2596 559 44 2 0
OW 42 168 287 960 576 39 6 0
VODI 0 83 250 719 1315 300 20 0
ODI 0 52 193 416 1250 1029 139 0
CDI 0 73 123 752 2036 4525 1757 6
VCDI 0 88 153 375 1404 11095 39186 20692

Date: 2016-05-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63773 25473 5225 2937 283 37 0 0
OW 50 89 294 1302 633 74 3 0
VODI 0 47 204 787 1518 173 17 0
ODI 0 29 88 554 1797 786 78 0
CDI 0 20 131 536 2669 5849 1256 1
VCDI 0 0 1 159 591 11844 39120 18620
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63773 25074 4724 2963 736 105 6 0
OW 50 272 263 840 661 115 9 0
VODI 0 137 292 707 1208 545 59 0
ODI 0 79 234 464 1331 984 247 0
CDI 0 41 264 844 2142 4392 1524 1
VCDI 0 55 166 457 1413 12622 38629 18620


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