Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2016-05-12

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-05-16

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 149 63 10 0 0 0 0
OW 0 56 102 142 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 55 131 11 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 22 104 44 25 0 0
CDI 0 0 7 108 142 228 40 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 34 562 8327 26527
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 89 11 2 0 0 0 0
OW 0 18 22 8 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 22 29 78 8 0 0 0
ODI 0 25 56 101 19 20 0 0
CDI 0 41 69 114 50 82 26 0
VCDI 0 19 62 192 156 714 8341 26527

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 3 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 71 146 273 2383 256
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 1 3 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 6 14 185 0
VCDI 0 0 0 71 139 259 2197 256

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 473 301 89 0 0 0 0
OW 0 32 61 56 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 22 42 73 10 0 0 0
ODI 0 7 58 94 41 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 11 120 271 426 39 0
VCDI 0 0 0 80 343 1819 4400 1111
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 287 174 69 0 0 0 0
OW 0 75 77 19 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 89 57 54 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 37 51 60 23 2 0 0
CDI 0 45 80 145 180 177 48 0
VCDI 0 1 34 165 462 2069 4391 1111

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 7 4 0 0 0 0
OW 0 15 44 16 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 37 35 5 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 7 52 33 27 0 1
CDI 0 0 0 39 118 134 0 12
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 170 2637 2253
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 6 16 6 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 24 16 0 2 0 0
ODI 0 5 38 42 21 21 0 4
CDI 0 0 17 72 93 162 267 32
VCDI 0 0 0 10 44 148 2370 2230

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 1 1 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 21 67 97 35
VCDI 0 0 0 0 39 633 5113 1234
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 10
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 10 46 27
CDI 0 0 0 0 22 88 199 62
VCDI 0 0 0 0 39 603 4965 1170

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 2 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 17 23 43 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 131 471 2734 1896
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 7 10 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 19 34 102 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 124 456 2665 1896

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 293 97 19 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 10 56 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 57 64 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 22 124 73 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 233 1091 51 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 227 935 2965 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 293 69 10 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 29 28 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 9 69 34 9 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 43 93 82 19 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 278 708 198 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 244 1300 2801 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5329 4640 594 139 0 0 0 0
OW 0 2 43 177 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 9 120 66 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 15 63 47 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 5 70 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 0 2 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5329 4509 453 82 0 0 0 0
OW 0 133 135 117 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 36 170 51 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 19 63 47 14 0 0
CDI 0 0 3 18 33 78 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 11 0 27 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5573 3261 198 32 0 0 0 0
OW 0 4 81 94 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 13 130 41 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 66 182 58 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 160 772 40 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 457 525 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5573 3227 157 42 6 0 0 0
OW 0 24 62 66 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 13 54 75 50 28 0 0
ODI 0 1 16 83 95 133 0 0
CDI 0 0 3 58 198 437 55 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 28 691 510 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7923 3449 487 425 82 0 0 0
OW 0 8 15 117 82 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 60 177 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 148 9 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 4 1 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7923 3457 502 541 173 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 44 116 4 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 18 144 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 60 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 325 204 73 0 0 0 0
OW 0 15 59 141 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 17 118 106 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 30 189 70 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 275 1144 121 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 53 361 2482 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 306 173 83 0 0 0 0
OW 0 19 55 73 22 0 0 0
VODI 0 15 32 128 86 22 0 0
ODI 0 0 20 55 173 128 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 27 239 738 559 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 108 688 2044 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 169 125 16 0 0 0 0
OW 0 4 94 185 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 203 86 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 56 246 21 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 23 342 494 65 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 181 1255 4496 519
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 123 107 85 33 0 0 0
OW 0 48 51 75 25 1 0 0
VODI 0 2 61 161 54 15 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 107 104 22 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 55 339 393 157 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 307 1339 4404 519

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10147 6233 925 406 90 11 0 0
OW 0 0 2 163 67 16 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 79 127 38 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 8 189 109 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 198 474 141 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 114 193 479 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10147 6233 917 443 145 32 0 0
OW 0 0 10 134 59 41 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 65 143 82 19 0
ODI 0 0 0 14 151 136 51 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 141 309 384 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 146 241 166 0


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