Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2016-05-12

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-05-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67959 17969 2013 1878 178 16 0 0
OW 54 63 157 557 233 63 19 0
VODI 0 41 74 377 638 98 69 0
ODI 0 6 39 135 692 195 74 0
CDI 0 0 29 88 716 1418 110 0
VCDI 0 0 1 12 263 1960 5947 4959
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-05-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69104 17034 2123 1834 195 50 0 0
OW 52 92 184 508 393 55 35 0
VODI 0 45 91 411 450 101 77 0
ODI 0 2 47 215 459 304 52 0
CDI 0 0 20 137 800 1186 205 0
VCDI 0 0 0 64 406 1832 5272 5265
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-05-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68169 18761 2202 1493 117 14 1 0
OW 59 2 129 770 170 32 13 0
VODI 0 0 12 539 458 90 18 0
ODI 0 0 14 147 933 229 0 0
CDI 0 0 4 100 874 1838 159 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 127 1423 5263 4936
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-05-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69440 17894 2247 1420 197 14 0 0
OW 57 17 196 635 138 81 0 0
VODI 0 8 65 452 461 120 10 0
ODI 0 9 20 282 696 244 0 0
CDI 0 6 39 147 913 1478 274 0
VCDI 0 0 7 62 193 1985 4459 4834
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69440 17891 2257 1465 186 22 0 0
OW 57 21 182 557 132 69 0 0
VODI 0 5 69 477 407 119 9 0
ODI 0 9 19 269 698 219 1 0
CDI 0 8 31 162 956 1460 264 0
VCDI 0 0 16 68 219 2033 4469 4834

Date: 2016-05-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68833 18994 2186 1255 250 22 0 0
OW 58 41 165 552 267 52 0 0
VODI 0 30 82 365 608 160 0 0
ODI 0 21 27 278 428 395 18 0
CDI 0 11 33 199 437 1700 528 0
VCDI 0 0 23 94 161 1363 4749 4715
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68833 18948 2175 1269 267 29 0 0
OW 58 88 175 509 229 43 0 0
VODI 0 23 75 362 512 146 0 0
ODI 0 18 32 279 537 347 10 0
CDI 0 13 23 216 429 1661 480 0
VCDI 0 7 36 108 177 1466 4805 4715

Date: 2016-05-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70752 17699 2263 1001 172 11 0 0
OW 47 78 242 760 160 16 0 0
VODI 0 9 77 550 493 35 0 0
ODI 0 0 22 190 679 265 0 0
CDI 0 0 7 115 414 1813 315 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 35 962 4967 4946
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70750 17487 2033 1090 324 32 0 0
OW 49 178 246 406 204 45 0 0
VODI 0 35 104 477 434 136 19 0
ODI 0 26 91 257 451 404 51 0
CDI 0 41 75 188 352 1140 985 0
VCDI 0 19 62 203 188 1345 4227 4946

Date: 2016-05-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72145 16923 1935 1148 233 1 0 0
OW 51 27 175 588 216 18 0 0
VODI 0 1 85 395 510 68 0 0
ODI 0 0 27 162 511 377 5 0
CDI 0 0 5 146 515 1581 701 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 67 851 5462 4167
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72143 16705 1630 996 431 18 0 0
OW 53 153 176 319 226 59 0 0
VODI 0 42 167 469 367 188 35 0
ODI 0 15 126 228 386 405 87 0
CDI 0 21 63 222 394 1144 1157 0
VCDI 0 15 65 209 248 1082 4889 4167

Date: 2016-05-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70016 18808 1967 1249 201 16 0 0
OW 52 63 145 629 259 16 0 0
VODI 0 1 79 355 550 105 1 0
ODI 0 0 33 160 677 459 35 0
CDI 0 0 1 147 494 1720 891 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 35 900 4490 4546
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70016 18714 1658 1159 416 39 0 0
OW 52 65 195 326 260 50 1 0
VODI 0 17 163 447 360 212 33 0
ODI 0 43 80 286 455 415 128 0
CDI 0 33 83 156 558 1409 1217 0
VCDI 0 0 46 166 167 1091 4038 4546


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