Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2016-05-12

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-05-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 516 155 73 23 0 0 0
OW 0 6 15 46 14 1 0 0
VODI 0 1 19 72 76 75 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 58 131 157 34 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 204 498 442 8
VCDI 0 0 0 2 385 2254 8644 18157
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-05-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 519 138 72 23 0 0 0
OW 0 2 15 46 15 2 0 0
VODI 0 0 13 71 78 72 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 62 114 203 20 2
CDI 0 0 0 17 194 421 477 4
VCDI 0 0 0 10 405 2351 8199 18537
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-05-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 525 161 137 22 0 0 0
OW 0 0 1 69 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 80 39 12 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 23 149 128 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 258 939 136 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 199 1937 8662 18599
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-05-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 539 165 149 1 0 0 0
OW 0 0 11 63 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 85 13 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 47 115 129 3 2
CDI 0 0 0 27 305 671 269 21
VCDI 0 0 0 34 198 1840 7650 19735
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 539 160 141 1 0 0 0
OW 0 0 18 63 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 76 19 13 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 60 72 107 7 4
CDI 0 0 0 33 355 728 358 20
VCDI 0 0 0 32 184 1797 7557 19734

Date: 2016-05-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 558 187 89 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 28 63 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 4 84 24 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 53 95 99 21 0
CDI 0 0 0 19 321 624 338 15
VCDI 0 0 0 41 298 1714 10708 16694
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 558 190 96 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 23 54 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 6 88 29 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 53 102 73 32 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 367 712 433 18
VCDI 0 0 0 42 239 1645 10602 16691

Date: 2016-05-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 634 238 75 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 25 75 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 78 67 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 26 153 106 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 279 1203 180 35
VCDI 0 0 0 9 397 2090 12490 13916
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 628 193 65 0 0 0 0
OW 0 6 46 36 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 24 88 34 11 6 10
ODI 0 0 0 59 109 104 71 27
CDI 0 0 0 6 347 869 497 62
VCDI 0 0 0 9 407 2415 12100 13852

Date: 2016-05-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 700 252 50 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 32 65 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 4 82 80 14 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 49 174 107 23 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 502 1131 266 13
VCDI 0 0 0 9 463 3738 13614 10704
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 684 226 43 0 0 0 0
OW 0 11 41 53 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 13 116 44 44 24 5
ODI 0 0 8 24 216 161 86 55
CDI 0 0 0 15 510 802 578 95
VCDI 0 0 0 9 453 3983 13215 10562

Date: 2016-05-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 863 148 91 6 0 0 0
OW 0 12 69 51 29 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 34 87 108 21 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 87 234 166 13 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 425 1021 515 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 408 3139 14504 10026
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 836 137 62 3 0 0 0
OW 0 35 67 45 21 2 0 0
VODI 0 4 42 124 91 80 25 0
ODI 0 0 5 91 220 221 106 93
CDI 0 0 0 8 515 1026 746 210
VCDI 0 0 0 11 360 3018 14155 9723


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