Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2016-05-12

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-05-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 119 45 0 0 0 0
OW 0 3 73 87 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 14 95 248 82 0 0 0
ODI 0 14 72 252 166 40 26 0
CDI 0 7 57 514 600 208 414 20
VCDI 0 0 14 304 1248 4004 18469 18668
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-05-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 48 84 56 0 0 0 0
OW 0 44 101 97 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 58 115 148 105 0 0 0
ODI 0 50 117 192 189 36 20 0
CDI 0 30 184 373 540 247 509 55
VCDI 0 17 81 414 1148 3402 17044 20358
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-05-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 219 203 137 0 0 0 0
OW 0 96 84 329 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 45 133 284 99 0 0 0
ODI 0 20 99 196 230 41 7 0
CDI 0 10 70 274 891 805 190 0
VCDI 0 0 4 162 738 4529 17690 18279
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-05-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 338 336 136 1 0 0 0
OW 0 127 231 162 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 125 145 265 78 4 0 0
ODI 0 44 101 212 185 44 7 0
CDI 0 14 91 281 838 712 273 7
VCDI 0 0 21 208 820 5818 19495 14741
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 368 386 179 1 0 0 0
OW 0 102 182 144 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 126 143 260 100 4 0 0
ODI 0 38 99 200 218 45 4 0
CDI 0 14 88 266 818 715 311 9
VCDI 0 0 27 215 782 5814 19460 14739

Date: 2016-05-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 391 295 108 0 0 0 0
OW 0 216 178 174 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 122 161 282 67 4 0 0
ODI 0 47 94 255 182 56 5 0
CDI 0 34 85 310 625 728 453 27
VCDI 0 0 51 234 1286 5736 17869 15784
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 487 353 167 1 0 0 0
OW 0 131 163 158 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 110 125 302 92 5 0 0
ODI 0 45 88 228 211 71 5 0
CDI 0 36 79 259 650 693 433 25
VCDI 0 1 56 249 1199 5755 17889 15786

Date: 2016-05-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 682 502 137 0 0 0 0
OW 0 66 244 312 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 26 96 378 133 9 0 0
ODI 0 7 65 232 430 80 4 1
CDI 0 0 11 186 1093 1911 143 13
VCDI 0 0 0 161 838 4079 19084 14934
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 431 339 202 33 0 0 0
OW 0 148 165 128 33 1 0 0
VODI 0 114 174 269 102 19 0 0
ODI 0 42 109 252 234 73 6 4
CDI 0 45 97 299 899 1211 698 33
VCDI 0 1 34 256 1202 4775 18527 14911

Date: 2016-05-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 739 714 322 5 0 0 0
OW 0 95 120 238 38 3 0 0
VODI 0 59 122 220 159 5 1 0
ODI 0 20 72 188 377 86 9 0
CDI 0 7 64 283 1025 1460 285 0
VCDI 0 1 74 250 880 4742 20622 12581
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 427 454 209 14 0 0 0
OW 0 158 171 150 31 4 0 0
VODI 0 146 183 253 140 1 0 0
ODI 0 75 94 258 249 69 10 0
CDI 0 74 111 275 905 1261 877 27
VCDI 0 41 153 356 1145 4961 20030 12554

Date: 2016-05-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 941 740 327 6 0 0 0
OW 0 136 159 198 36 0 0 0
VODI 0 81 114 272 148 13 0 0
ODI 0 48 44 236 317 82 8 0
CDI 0 33 105 255 915 1309 394 0
VCDI 0 52 123 330 927 3679 18314 15524
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 588 474 253 5 0 0 0
OW 0 249 182 158 43 0 0 0
VODI 0 157 216 220 138 12 0 0
ODI 0 81 128 284 185 74 21 0
CDI 0 88 87 298 765 879 1067 0
VCDI 0 128 198 405 1213 4118 17628 15524


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