Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2016-05-12

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-05-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67959 18485 2287 1996 201 16 0 0
OW 54 72 245 690 250 64 19 0
VODI 0 56 188 697 796 173 69 0
ODI 0 20 112 445 989 392 134 0
CDI 0 7 86 617 1520 2124 966 28
VCDI 0 0 15 318 1896 8218 33060 41784
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-05-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69104 17601 2345 1962 218 50 0 0
OW 52 138 300 651 412 57 35 0
VODI 0 103 219 630 633 173 77 0
ODI 0 52 164 469 762 543 92 2
CDI 0 30 204 527 1534 1854 1191 59
VCDI 0 17 81 488 1959 7585 30515 44160
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-05-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68169 19505 2566 1767 139 14 1 0
OW 59 98 214 1168 173 32 13 0
VODI 0 45 145 903 596 102 18 0
ODI 0 20 113 366 1312 398 8 0
CDI 0 10 74 378 2023 3582 485 0
VCDI 0 0 4 166 1064 7889 31615 41814
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-05-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69440 18771 2748 1705 199 14 0 0
OW 57 144 438 860 147 81 0 0
VODI 0 133 212 802 552 129 10 0
ODI 0 53 121 541 996 417 10 2
CDI 0 20 130 455 2056 2861 816 28
VCDI 0 0 28 304 1211 9643 31604 39310
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69440 18798 2803 1785 188 22 0 0
OW 57 123 382 764 145 69 0 0
VODI 0 131 212 813 526 136 9 0
ODI 0 47 118 529 988 371 12 4
CDI 0 22 119 461 2129 2903 933 29
VCDI 0 0 43 315 1185 9644 31486 39307

Date: 2016-05-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68833 19943 2668 1452 250 22 0 0
OW 58 257 371 789 276 52 0 0
VODI 0 152 247 731 699 167 0 0
ODI 0 68 121 586 705 550 44 0
CDI 0 45 118 528 1383 3052 1319 42
VCDI 0 0 74 369 1745 8813 33326 37193
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68833 19993 2718 1532 268 29 0 0
OW 58 219 361 721 246 43 0 0
VODI 0 133 206 752 633 161 0 0
ODI 0 63 120 560 850 491 47 0
CDI 0 49 102 491 1446 3066 1346 43
VCDI 0 8 92 399 1615 8866 33296 37192

Date: 2016-05-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70752 19015 3003 1213 172 11 0 0
OW 47 144 511 1147 171 16 0 0
VODI 0 35 173 1006 693 44 0 0
ODI 0 7 87 448 1262 451 8 1
CDI 0 0 18 301 1786 4927 638 48
VCDI 0 0 0 175 1270 7131 36541 33796
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70750 18546 2565 1357 357 32 0 0
OW 49 332 457 570 238 46 0 0
VODI 0 149 302 834 570 166 25 10
ODI 0 68 200 568 794 581 128 31
CDI 0 86 172 493 1598 3220 2180 95
VCDI 0 20 96 468 1797 8535 34854 33709

Date: 2016-05-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72145 18362 2901 1520 238 1 0 0
OW 51 122 327 891 259 21 0 0
VODI 0 60 211 697 749 87 1 0
ODI 0 20 99 399 1062 570 37 0
CDI 0 7 69 434 2042 4172 1252 13
VCDI 0 1 74 263 1410 9331 39698 27452
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72143 17816 2310 1248 445 18 0 0
OW 53 322 388 522 258 63 0 0
VODI 0 193 363 838 551 233 59 5
ODI 0 90 228 510 851 635 183 55
CDI 0 95 174 512 1809 3207 2612 122
VCDI 0 56 218 574 1846 10026 38134 27283

Date: 2016-05-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70016 20612 2855 1667 213 16 0 0
OW 52 211 373 878 324 16 0 0
VODI 0 82 227 714 806 139 1 0
ODI 0 48 77 483 1228 707 56 0
CDI 0 33 106 418 1834 4050 1800 0
VCDI 0 52 123 339 1370 7718 37308 30096
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70016 20138 2269 1474 424 39 0 0
OW 52 349 444 529 324 52 1 0
VODI 0 178 421 791 589 304 58 0
ODI 0 124 213 661 860 710 255 93
CDI 0 121 170 462 1838 3314 3030 210
VCDI 0 128 244 582 1740 8227 35821 29793


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