Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2016-05-05

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-04-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65766 19839 2558 1700 96 0 0 0
OW 56 54 167 663 666 0 0 0
VODI 0 43 155 554 726 104 0 0
ODI 0 12 87 352 716 478 39 1
CDI 0 0 75 319 1296 2135 477 34
VCDI 0 0 165 497 1752 7727 33723 44016
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-05-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67246 18727 2291 1704 215 1 0 0
OW 55 53 194 602 555 17 0 0
VODI 0 81 173 581 490 243 23 0
ODI 0 40 64 435 586 407 157 0
CDI 0 57 59 304 1517 1515 1136 61
VCDI 0 28 227 502 1990 8133 35688 40891
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-05-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67229 18607 2626 1964 279 0 0 0
OW 53 73 191 788 330 24 0 0
VODI 0 55 66 684 853 110 2 0
ODI 0 38 55 352 1076 468 93 0
CDI 0 24 93 436 1545 2711 1230 0
VCDI 0 0 14 271 1562 9266 35698 38182
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-05-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67422 18630 2546 1924 344 11 0 0
OW 53 94 210 666 282 65 6 0
VODI 0 45 199 753 702 130 35 0
ODI 0 18 134 402 994 442 122 2
CDI 0 5 111 605 1361 2345 1033 39
VCDI 0 0 8 288 1733 8272 34156 40861
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67422 18647 2575 1975 378 38 2 0
OW 53 84 201 654 256 43 11 0
VODI 0 41 184 749 678 146 27 0
ODI 0 18 130 370 1008 354 120 5
CDI 0 2 112 597 1366 2324 970 45
VCDI 0 0 6 293 1730 8360 34222 40852

Date: 2016-05-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68359 18270 2211 2035 183 34 3 0
OW 53 131 239 646 337 63 50 0
VODI 0 103 201 599 731 231 83 0
ODI 0 37 194 353 887 491 145 0
CDI 0 27 143 589 1537 1748 1223 40
VCDI 0 9 55 364 1963 7765 32253 42663
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68359 18301 2314 2062 163 48 21 0
OW 53 139 171 678 327 68 37 0
VODI 0 79 199 555 764 185 92 0
ODI 0 35 173 362 890 400 142 0
CDI 0 22 141 564 1566 1784 1257 44
VCDI 0 1 45 365 1928 7847 32208 42659

Date: 2016-05-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65987 20548 3239 1603 206 4 0 0
OW 55 151 376 1060 205 62 0 0
VODI 0 22 171 1055 692 106 2 0
ODI 0 20 89 436 1395 375 33 0
CDI 0 0 51 349 1902 3622 406 0
VCDI 0 0 0 155 1012 6402 31295 43962
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65986 20393 3125 1781 281 117 14 0
OW 56 106 197 689 368 65 29 0
VODI 0 108 157 675 559 145 80 0
ODI 0 78 125 467 730 518 86 18
CDI 0 46 249 545 1582 2038 1452 75
VCDI 0 10 73 501 1892 7688 30075 43869

Date: 2016-05-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68958 19014 2589 1803 169 11 0 0
OW 56 124 292 1038 132 69 1 0
VODI 0 73 238 781 613 122 16 0
ODI 0 22 134 465 1106 476 6 0
CDI 0 13 113 407 2061 3198 749 18
VCDI 0 0 22 205 1075 9864 30444 40571
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68958 18704 2203 1891 292 150 0 0
OW 56 155 251 578 224 49 8 0
VODI 0 176 254 595 448 176 31 0
ODI 0 110 242 498 675 486 123 3
CDI 0 88 309 640 1614 2090 1249 48
VCDI 0 13 129 497 1903 10789 29805 40538

Date: 2016-05-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70385 18328 2728 1382 216 12 0 0
OW 58 190 411 824 210 69 0 0
VODI 0 164 195 740 639 143 13 0
ODI 0 68 115 564 830 495 49 0
CDI 0 38 135 508 1619 2778 1279 26
VCDI 0 0 54 335 1366 9329 30843 39910
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70384 18011 2327 1499 412 98 0 0
OW 59 244 293 375 219 51 3 0
VODI 0 204 362 532 457 147 34 0
ODI 0 163 265 584 605 441 111 0
CDI 0 114 252 823 1429 2319 1808 35
VCDI 0 52 139 540 1758 9770 30228 39901


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