Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2016-04-28

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-04-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64575 18798 1999 1828 201 0 0 0
OW 60 68 198 865 504 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 44 414 896 81 0 0
ODI 0 0 8 166 535 427 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 97 723 1244 32 0
VCDI 0 0 0 44 762 3958 6036 4535
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-04-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64799 18718 1988 1936 376 0 0 0
OW 60 46 237 533 673 12 0 0
VODI 0 0 85 315 832 63 0 0
ODI 0 0 11 221 421 355 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 176 596 1186 28 0
VCDI 0 0 0 50 1044 3271 6674 4394
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-04-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65123 18755 2365 2184 253 0 0 0
OW 56 10 65 633 575 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 7 258 914 25 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 102 732 288 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 52 760 1285 19 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 300 3918 5670 4747
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-04-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65707 18991 2204 1972 235 0 0 0
OW 56 16 99 474 672 7 0 0
VODI 0 1 39 305 620 146 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 188 423 453 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 148 560 1211 191 0
VCDI 0 0 0 13 497 1665 7541 4653
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65707 18957 2195 1940 270 0 0 0
OW 56 50 102 482 583 9 0 0
VODI 0 1 44 325 658 174 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 192 457 334 16 0
CDI 0 0 0 145 516 1237 144 0
VCDI 0 0 0 16 523 1728 7584 4653

Date: 2016-04-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66498 18890 2197 1579 82 0 0 0
OW 55 31 134 609 565 10 0 0
VODI 0 0 64 399 425 176 8 0
ODI 0 0 3 255 444 276 60 0
CDI 0 0 0 86 839 1057 303 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 472 2797 6412 4368
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66498 18869 2184 1592 121 1 0 0
OW 55 52 146 575 431 30 0 0
VODI 0 0 64 413 480 180 11 0
ODI 0 0 4 253 481 238 24 0
CDI 0 0 0 97 781 958 291 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 533 2909 6457 4368

Date: 2016-05-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67405 17895 2192 1644 151 0 0 0
OW 53 7 134 729 362 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 8 580 501 50 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 83 853 217 27 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 860 1629 486 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 235 1977 6399 4602
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67404 17841 2078 1849 250 18 0 0
OW 54 58 149 427 424 41 31 0
VODI 0 3 94 394 391 199 66 0
ODI 0 0 13 283 359 228 107 0
CDI 0 0 0 93 796 782 729 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 742 2606 5979 4602

Date: 2016-05-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67526 17833 2246 1854 287 5 0 0
OW 53 11 127 563 288 50 2 0
VODI 0 0 33 381 555 90 25 0
ODI 0 0 5 124 715 290 106 0
CDI 0 0 0 44 776 1637 648 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 169 2041 5789 4818
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67525 17694 2067 1880 291 34 15 0
OW 54 111 115 371 454 85 44 0
VODI 0 39 126 289 442 170 73 0
ODI 0 0 80 205 425 341 68 0
CDI 0 0 21 205 629 885 449 0
VCDI 0 0 2 25 549 2598 5921 4818

Date: 2016-05-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67959 17969 2013 1878 178 16 0 0
OW 54 63 157 557 233 63 19 0
VODI 0 41 74 377 638 98 69 0
ODI 0 6 39 135 692 195 74 0
CDI 0 0 29 88 716 1418 110 0
VCDI 0 0 1 12 263 1960 5947 4959
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67959 17663 1905 1967 250 50 63 0
OW 54 163 116 376 439 35 43 0
VODI 0 113 96 292 477 205 53 0
ODI 0 92 38 126 436 314 12 0
CDI 0 44 122 195 469 876 127 0
VCDI 0 4 36 91 649 2270 5921 4959


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