Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2016-04-28

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-04-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 17 33 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 18 172 26 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 30 312 256 44 3
VCDI 0 0 0 106 907 3717 17357 22867
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-04-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 33 23 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 81 116 26 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 124 209 214 65 0
VCDI 0 0 0 308 902 3467 16849 23449
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-04-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 16 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 154 6 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 5 129 116 15 0 0
CDI 0 0 28 106 307 139 73 0
VCDI 0 0 12 377 1070 3863 16525 22925
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-04-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 2 27 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 81 123 10 0 2 0
ODI 0 0 44 84 123 30 10 0
CDI 0 0 59 100 357 190 240 0
VCDI 0 0 107 401 1335 3928 17722 20891
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 8 37 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 80 122 25 0 1 0
ODI 0 0 43 74 155 30 11 0
CDI 0 0 60 119 395 222 271 0
VCDI 0 0 102 383 1250 3896 17691 20891

Date: 2016-04-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1 8 33 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 32 93 115 27 0 0 0
ODI 0 20 57 103 108 22 9 0
CDI 0 5 83 184 353 258 156 4
VCDI 0 0 160 517 1172 3509 17304 21533
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 6 37 48 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 33 87 119 47 0 0 0
ODI 0 18 60 105 152 25 12 0
CDI 0 1 79 199 403 341 216 5
VCDI 0 0 138 481 1056 3423 17241 21532

Date: 2016-05-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 123 84 50 0 0 0 0
OW 0 46 44 72 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 31 37 168 109 0 0 0
ODI 0 42 74 185 219 22 5 0
CDI 0 0 81 353 680 473 216 0
VCDI 0 0 5 157 917 3988 18941 18739
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 17 9 0 0 0 0
OW 0 21 39 45 15 0 0 0
VODI 0 55 59 84 76 0 2 0
ODI 0 62 20 111 148 27 33 0
CDI 0 66 30 223 512 395 446 26
VCDI 0 38 160 513 1179 4061 18681 18713

Date: 2016-05-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 98 102 60 0 0 0 0
OW 0 61 19 91 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 59 60 267 16 0 0 0
ODI 0 38 65 221 142 24 13 0
CDI 0 28 103 464 417 283 263 12
VCDI 0 0 11 325 1174 4181 19920 17349
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 24 23 0 0 0 0
OW 0 18 29 57 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 44 66 187 67 0 4 0
ODI 0 64 48 203 108 91 64 0
CDI 0 81 36 316 396 283 449 40
VCDI 0 77 157 642 1177 4114 19679 17321

Date: 2016-05-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 119 45 0 0 0 0
OW 0 3 73 87 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 14 95 248 82 0 0 0
ODI 0 14 72 252 166 40 26 0
CDI 0 7 57 514 600 208 414 20
VCDI 0 0 14 304 1248 4004 18469 18668
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 2 5 3 0 0 0
OW 0 0 28 88 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 81 142 114 13 4 0
ODI 0 0 120 193 137 66 99 0
CDI 0 13 106 365 478 225 593 46
VCDI 0 25 93 657 1353 3948 18213 18642


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