Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2016-04-21

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-04-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62782 19476 2210 1914 460 16 0 0
OW 60 88 236 583 701 17 0 0
VODI 0 26 117 408 950 259 0 0
ODI 0 0 44 183 528 430 5 0
CDI 0 0 5 152 617 989 86 0
VCDI 0 0 0 105 753 5088 5473 4339
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-04-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63705 18802 2036 1769 396 0 0 0
OW 60 98 289 647 772 4 0 0
VODI 0 18 157 464 907 165 0 0
ODI 0 3 21 235 535 326 0 0
CDI 0 0 9 108 671 1101 47 0
VCDI 0 0 0 15 621 3895 6665 4559
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-04-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64226 18973 2256 1631 207 0 0 0
OW 60 9 164 817 546 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 19 514 827 82 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 162 727 342 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 107 639 1120 74 0
VCDI 0 0 0 61 1083 2883 7082 4489
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-04-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63254 19811 2278 1683 138 0 0 0
OW 60 68 256 870 535 2 0 0
VODI 0 4 73 431 854 99 0 0
ODI 0 0 17 186 644 329 1 0
CDI 0 0 4 103 864 933 11 0
VCDI 0 0 0 83 1267 3145 6616 4481
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63254 19832 2335 1881 225 0 0 0
OW 60 48 210 663 436 1 0 0
VODI 0 3 65 470 812 80 0 0
ODI 0 0 14 179 679 319 1 0
CDI 0 0 4 80 913 920 12 0
VCDI 0 0 0 83 1237 3188 6615 4481

Date: 2016-04-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64939 18560 1925 1898 265 1 0 0
OW 60 56 259 635 589 3 0 0
VODI 0 0 78 372 916 49 0 0
ODI 0 0 5 190 483 384 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 79 587 1536 37 0
VCDI 0 0 0 15 683 3304 6623 4568
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64939 18568 1912 2061 342 1 0 0
OW 60 48 279 479 440 3 0 0
VODI 0 0 71 408 922 53 0 0
ODI 0 0 6 155 560 321 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 77 637 1573 46 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 622 3326 6614 4568

Date: 2016-04-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64800 18972 2291 1830 246 0 0 0
OW 57 16 87 859 432 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 378 892 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 135 865 251 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 78 1057 1349 16 0
VCDI 0 0 0 15 626 3541 5506 4795
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64797 18894 2064 2071 353 0 0 0
OW 60 85 240 478 514 1 0 0
VODI 0 9 69 336 830 69 0 0
ODI 0 0 6 199 515 201 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 183 765 873 51 0
VCDI 0 0 0 28 1141 4002 5471 4795

Date: 2016-04-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64474 19987 2220 2008 263 0 0 0
OW 56 12 82 574 646 8 0 0
VODI 0 0 26 348 694 102 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 169 471 397 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 133 648 993 106 0
VCDI 0 0 0 15 425 2894 6889 4457
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64473 19844 2037 1965 279 0 0 0
OW 57 143 163 497 551 1 0 0
VODI 0 12 94 288 749 102 0 0
ODI 0 0 32 238 405 246 0 0
CDI 0 0 4 235 519 849 67 0
VCDI 0 0 0 24 644 3196 6929 4457

Date: 2016-04-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65766 19184 2440 1639 54 0 0 0
OW 56 16 134 582 649 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 48 361 629 99 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 207 478 347 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 104 749 1092 146 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 386 2424 6709 4781
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65766 19015 2314 1621 334 0 0 0
OW 56 153 141 447 418 16 0 0
VODI 0 31 92 351 494 119 0 0
ODI 0 1 66 218 487 181 0 0
CDI 0 0 10 244 629 848 77 0
VCDI 0 0 0 19 583 2798 6790 4781


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