Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2016-04-21

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-04-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 394 17 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 45 5 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 58 12 15 1 7 0 0
ODI 0 57 16 17 23 34 1 0
CDI 0 16 65 47 45 175 43 17
VCDI 0 0 4 108 229 1538 8459 20634
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-04-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 359 16 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 47 6 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 53 7 19 5 3 0 0
ODI 0 52 11 27 22 31 4 0
CDI 0 13 80 59 80 186 167 6
VCDI 0 0 2 113 212 1302 10306 18893
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-04-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 614 21 2 0 0 0 0
OW 0 24 51 12 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 42 46 39 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 13 56 108 22 2 0
CDI 0 0 2 76 36 149 105 0
VCDI 0 0 0 30 201 945 11230 18256
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-04-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 588 18 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 84 30 14 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 11 51 57 43 10 0 0
ODI 0 1 28 57 55 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 14 65 82 180 66 1
VCDI 0 0 2 79 174 1719 11573 17057
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 588 19 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 85 31 14 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 10 51 64 60 10 0 0
ODI 0 1 29 51 39 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 13 65 78 170 75 0
VCDI 0 0 0 79 183 1733 11564 17058

Date: 2016-04-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 534 18 1 9 0 0 0
OW 0 98 3 21 52 0 0 0
VODI 0 38 36 87 29 1 0 0
ODI 0 8 41 38 82 14 2 0
CDI 0 1 24 69 242 154 42 15
VCDI 0 0 5 76 225 2343 9308 18466
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 540 18 0 10 0 0 0
OW 0 100 9 11 41 0 0 0
VODI 0 32 41 102 39 0 0 0
ODI 0 7 37 35 64 13 2 0
CDI 0 0 20 66 246 159 32 9
VCDI 0 0 2 78 239 2340 9318 18472

Date: 2016-04-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 739 98 36 17 0 0 0
OW 0 5 48 68 38 3 0 0
VODI 0 2 29 93 66 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 14 72 155 122 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 61 354 934 99 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 131 2530 8241 18120
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 593 26 23 31 3 0 0
OW 0 89 15 29 31 0 0 0
VODI 0 48 51 76 33 2 0 0
ODI 0 14 44 37 84 108 7 0
CDI 0 2 40 65 253 609 123 0
VCDI 0 0 13 100 329 2872 8211 18121

Date: 2016-04-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 687 123 70 47 0 0 0
OW 0 37 18 67 33 0 0 0
VODI 0 11 34 62 57 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 18 57 177 145 16 0
CDI 0 0 2 81 264 741 489 1
VCDI 0 0 0 1 184 1878 10948 15829
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 614 48 23 47 0 0 0
OW 0 44 69 53 29 0 0 0
VODI 0 35 14 93 26 3 0 0
ODI 0 28 9 31 130 44 4 9
CDI 0 14 38 38 276 623 224 27
VCDI 0 0 17 100 254 2099 11225 15794

Date: 2016-04-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 655 118 61 42 0 0 0
OW 0 38 26 57 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 20 37 75 75 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 18 43 137 104 19 1
CDI 0 0 0 77 195 788 156 34
VCDI 0 0 0 5 133 1574 9293 18280
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 647 78 45 46 0 0 0
OW 0 35 50 55 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 21 27 77 43 2 0 0
ODI 0 7 16 35 123 84 2 1
CDI 0 3 25 51 205 582 185 26
VCDI 0 0 3 55 175 1802 9281 18288


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