Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2016-04-21

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-04-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 4 2 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 23 51 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 32 143 173 41 0
VCDI 0 0 0 40 751 4327 18799 21476
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-04-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 39 50 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 129 265 61 0
VCDI 0 0 0 45 746 3612 18585 22334
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-04-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 12 49 7 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 155 188 77 10
VCDI 0 0 0 103 684 3313 17844 23406
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-04-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 14 18 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 12 134 31 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 251 307 60 37
VCDI 0 0 0 42 852 3660 17237 23199
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 14 19 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 10 131 34 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 262 308 55 34
VCDI 0 0 0 43 843 3656 17244 23202

Date: 2016-04-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 7 48 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 63 149 27 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 84 247 287 71 0
VCDI 0 0 0 133 928 3683 17110 23029
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 19 60 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 63 183 37 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 85 261 331 88 0
VCDI 0 0 0 120 868 3629 17093 23029

Date: 2016-04-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 41 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 101 41 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 95 200 9 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 226 244 192 54 0
VCDI 0 0 0 216 807 3276 16381 23983
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 61 17 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 67 169 11 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 175 220 169 81 0
VCDI 0 0 0 367 886 3297 16353 23983

Date: 2016-04-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 22 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 42 131 12 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 32 97 116 27 5 0
CDI 0 3 33 116 353 160 168 0
VCDI 0 0 46 428 1168 4010 16828 22067
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 1 26 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 19 81 42 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 22 92 185 17 14 0
CDI 0 0 25 140 372 158 159 0
VCDI 0 3 86 450 1050 4022 16828 22067

Date: 2016-04-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 7 24 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 23 70 118 22 1 0 0
ODI 0 12 68 102 101 27 8 0
CDI 0 0 75 138 352 255 175 0
VCDI 0 0 165 485 1233 3729 17721 20955
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 2 26 0 0 0 0
OW 0 9 34 29 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 15 17 90 61 7 0 0
ODI 0 11 32 115 110 42 18 0
CDI 0 0 74 182 403 191 198 4
VCDI 0 0 226 425 1131 3772 17688 20951


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