Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2016-04-21

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-04-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62782 19870 2227 1914 460 16 0 0
OW 60 133 241 583 701 17 0 0
VODI 0 84 129 427 953 266 0 0
ODI 0 57 60 223 602 468 6 0
CDI 0 16 70 231 805 1337 170 17
VCDI 0 0 4 253 1733 10953 32731 46449
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-04-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63705 19161 2052 1770 396 0 0 0
OW 60 145 295 647 772 4 0 0
VODI 0 71 164 483 912 168 0 0
ODI 0 55 32 262 596 407 4 0
CDI 0 13 89 167 880 1552 275 6
VCDI 0 0 2 173 1579 8809 35556 45786
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-04-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64226 19587 2277 1633 207 0 0 0
OW 60 33 215 829 546 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 61 560 868 82 0 0
ODI 0 0 13 230 884 371 2 0
CDI 0 0 2 199 830 1457 256 10
VCDI 0 0 0 194 1968 7141 36156 46151
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-04-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63254 20399 2296 1684 138 0 0 0
OW 60 152 286 884 549 2 0 0
VODI 0 15 124 502 915 109 0 0
ODI 0 1 45 255 833 368 5 0
CDI 0 0 18 176 1197 1420 137 38
VCDI 0 0 2 204 2293 8524 35426 44737
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63254 20420 2354 1881 225 0 0 0
OW 60 133 241 677 444 1 0 0
VODI 0 13 116 548 891 90 0 0
ODI 0 1 43 240 849 357 3 0
CDI 0 0 17 154 1253 1398 142 34
VCDI 0 0 0 205 2263 8577 35423 44741

Date: 2016-04-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64939 19094 1943 1899 274 1 0 0
OW 60 154 262 656 641 3 0 0
VODI 0 38 114 466 993 50 0 0
ODI 0 8 46 291 714 425 2 0
CDI 0 1 25 232 1076 1977 150 15
VCDI 0 0 5 224 1836 9330 33041 46063
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64939 19108 1930 2061 352 1 0 0
OW 60 148 288 490 481 3 0 0
VODI 0 32 112 529 1021 53 0 0
ODI 0 7 43 253 807 371 2 0
CDI 0 0 20 228 1144 2063 166 9
VCDI 0 0 2 207 1729 9295 33025 46069

Date: 2016-04-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64800 19711 2389 1866 263 0 0 0
OW 57 21 135 968 470 3 0 0
VODI 0 2 30 572 999 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 14 302 1220 382 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 365 1655 2475 169 1
VCDI 0 0 0 231 1564 9347 30128 46898
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64797 19487 2090 2094 384 3 0 0
OW 60 174 255 516 545 1 0 0
VODI 0 57 120 473 880 71 0 0
ODI 0 14 50 303 768 320 8 0
CDI 0 2 40 423 1238 1651 255 0
VCDI 0 0 13 495 2356 10171 30035 46899

Date: 2016-04-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64474 20674 2343 2078 310 0 0 0
OW 56 49 100 663 679 8 0 0
VODI 0 11 102 541 763 109 0 0
ODI 0 0 52 323 764 569 22 0
CDI 0 3 35 330 1265 1894 763 1
VCDI 0 0 46 444 1777 8782 34665 42353
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64473 20458 2085 1993 326 0 0 0
OW 57 187 233 576 580 1 0 0
VODI 0 47 127 462 817 107 0 0
ODI 0 28 63 361 720 307 18 9
CDI 0 14 67 413 1167 1630 450 27
VCDI 0 3 103 574 1948 9317 34982 42318

Date: 2016-04-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65766 19839 2558 1700 96 0 0 0
OW 56 54 167 663 666 0 0 0
VODI 0 43 155 554 726 104 0 0
ODI 0 12 87 352 716 478 39 1
CDI 0 0 75 319 1296 2135 477 34
VCDI 0 0 165 497 1752 7727 33723 44016
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65766 19662 2394 1692 380 0 0 0
OW 56 197 225 531 428 16 0 0
VODI 0 67 136 518 598 128 0 0
ODI 0 19 114 368 720 307 20 1
CDI 0 3 109 477 1237 1621 460 30
VCDI 0 0 229 499 1889 8372 33759 44020


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