Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2016-04-07

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-04-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64046 18673 1986 961 192 40 0 0
OW 51 166 351 449 228 66 8 0
VODI 0 180 155 507 345 186 24 0
ODI 0 22 95 298 475 374 46 0
CDI 0 14 95 310 630 1100 282 0
VCDI 0 48 120 283 1133 2356 8469 4336
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-04-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63393 19016 2289 1056 230 50 0 0
OW 51 98 304 531 220 101 0 0
VODI 0 67 176 551 427 256 6 0
ODI 0 21 118 304 482 473 109 0
CDI 0 16 70 360 703 1264 193 0
VCDI 0 18 108 251 715 2709 7983 4381
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-04-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57494 17998 3486 7503 153 19 4 0
OW 63 30 233 773 216 14 9 0
VODI 0 7 111 911 521 64 10 0
ODI 0 7 46 666 523 257 14 0
CDI 0 0 16 1000 576 956 49 0
VCDI 0 0 9 2857 2032 3428 6525 520
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-04-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 52607 14190 1761 11190 5792 814 311 0
OW 62 4 70 309 355 241 311 0
VODI 0 2 33 337 479 253 509 0
ODI 0 2 21 84 519 476 545 0
CDI 0 1 38 63 438 1168 809 0
VCDI 0 0 35 76 391 2378 8631 3795
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 52607 14192 1775 11208 5820 801 375 0
OW 62 2 59 295 352 214 246 0
VODI 0 1 27 329 495 292 479 0
ODI 0 3 24 93 478 488 536 0
CDI 0 1 41 61 425 1110 825 0
VCDI 0 0 32 73 404 2425 8655 3795

Date: 2016-04-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59314 16150 4720 3182 2460 435 370 0
OW 62 171 350 609 261 93 158 0
VODI 0 51 125 575 524 185 164 0
ODI 0 5 56 362 813 429 80 0
CDI 0 0 44 178 569 1220 110 0
VCDI 0 0 6 124 503 3795 6933 3914
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59314 16105 4734 3344 2499 454 369 0
OW 62 223 303 444 218 66 146 0
VODI 0 42 149 563 471 176 155 0
ODI 0 7 59 332 797 357 99 0
CDI 0 0 42 211 661 1251 107 0
VCDI 0 0 14 136 484 3853 6939 3914

Date: 2016-04-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62184 20187 2583 1478 254 5 0 0
OW 60 74 275 834 380 18 0 0
VODI 0 6 92 677 789 136 0 0
ODI 0 1 49 268 980 542 6 0
CDI 0 0 52 99 648 1524 104 0
VCDI 0 0 0 20 325 4017 6247 4186
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62182 20020 2491 1678 542 29 0 0
OW 62 165 228 549 373 131 0 0
VODI 0 65 138 514 698 413 16 0
ODI 0 15 50 254 583 466 50 0
CDI 0 2 33 218 576 937 243 0
VCDI 0 1 111 163 604 4266 6048 4186

Date: 2016-04-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63207 19002 2213 2032 381 1 0 0
OW 60 129 192 619 564 11 0 0
VODI 0 3 69 479 996 210 2 0
ODI 0 0 13 259 809 404 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 71 761 1267 104 0
VCDI 0 0 0 236 420 4487 5932 4155
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63206 18934 2164 2112 783 31 0 0
OW 61 94 151 517 590 177 5 0
VODI 0 92 102 400 735 334 27 0
ODI 0 12 43 230 520 323 40 0
CDI 0 2 27 183 712 1035 99 0
VCDI 0 0 0 254 591 4480 5879 4155

Date: 2016-04-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62782 19476 2210 1914 460 16 0 0
OW 60 88 236 583 701 17 0 0
VODI 0 26 117 408 950 259 0 0
ODI 0 0 44 183 528 430 5 0
CDI 0 0 5 152 617 989 86 0
VCDI 0 0 0 105 753 5088 5473 4339
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62781 19421 2114 2033 1064 131 0 0
OW 61 85 201 443 584 113 0 0
VODI 0 39 196 301 611 297 1 0
ODI 0 27 55 219 373 366 10 0
CDI 0 18 45 214 658 1164 103 0
VCDI 0 0 1 135 719 4728 5450 4339


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