Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2016-04-07

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-04-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64046 19020 2009 961 192 40 0 0
OW 51 253 358 449 228 66 8 0
VODI 0 269 162 509 351 186 24 0
ODI 0 109 101 304 506 386 46 0
CDI 0 112 106 328 725 1309 322 19
VCDI 0 106 237 552 1773 7226 32360 51239
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-04-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63393 19285 2306 1056 230 50 0 0
OW 51 151 314 531 220 101 0 0
VODI 0 110 179 552 427 256 6 0
ODI 0 76 129 308 505 535 126 0
CDI 0 102 94 398 836 1664 388 31
VCDI 0 85 223 510 1303 7352 33635 49530
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-04-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57494 18341 3508 7503 153 19 4 0
OW 63 77 242 779 216 14 9 0
VODI 0 118 152 931 525 69 10 0
ODI 0 29 111 790 562 303 14 0
CDI 0 0 20 1089 813 1417 212 8
VCDI 0 0 9 2993 2531 6815 32829 46276
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-04-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 52607 14190 1767 11488 5842 814 311 0
OW 62 4 70 370 355 241 311 0
VODI 0 2 33 421 499 255 510 0
ODI 0 2 34 264 597 509 559 0
CDI 0 1 55 139 756 1394 986 10
VCDI 0 0 49 260 1266 9314 36850 43851
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 52607 14192 1781 11516 5870 801 375 0
OW 62 2 59 359 353 214 246 0
VODI 0 1 28 403 516 296 481 0
ODI 0 3 36 286 566 521 555 0
CDI 0 1 58 125 745 1350 1009 10
VCDI 0 0 46 253 1265 9345 36861 43851

Date: 2016-04-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59314 16456 4740 3182 2460 435 370 0
OW 62 234 356 609 261 93 158 0
VODI 0 122 126 579 545 185 164 0
ODI 0 79 66 382 920 438 81 0
CDI 0 56 128 298 810 1351 168 42
VCDI 0 0 22 228 1323 10206 29982 50017
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59314 16415 4757 3344 2499 454 369 0
OW 62 286 307 446 220 66 146 0
VODI 0 115 152 566 500 176 155 0
ODI 0 75 74 349 909 371 105 0
CDI 0 56 118 337 920 1410 177 52
VCDI 0 0 30 236 1271 10231 29971 50007

Date: 2016-04-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62184 20600 2608 1478 254 5 0 0
OW 60 142 284 837 380 18 0 0
VODI 0 57 197 757 820 136 0 0
ODI 0 1 58 401 1198 551 10 0
CDI 0 0 52 188 956 1781 307 5
VCDI 0 0 0 106 1097 8942 30785 49793
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62182 20325 2504 1678 542 29 0 0
OW 62 227 237 549 373 131 0 0
VODI 0 123 155 520 701 413 16 0
ODI 0 65 71 289 659 481 66 0
CDI 0 50 79 315 856 1141 519 17
VCDI 0 10 153 416 1574 9238 30501 49781

Date: 2016-04-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63207 19391 2229 2032 381 1 0 0
OW 60 169 199 619 564 11 0 0
VODI 0 61 85 519 1010 213 2 0
ODI 0 14 87 365 892 418 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 175 1071 1493 200 0
VCDI 0 0 0 277 1287 9759 34782 45463
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63206 19229 2173 2112 783 31 0 0
OW 61 148 157 517 590 177 5 0
VODI 0 142 113 411 738 334 27 0
ODI 0 47 47 252 577 337 73 0
CDI 0 48 61 252 857 1293 391 20
VCDI 0 21 49 443 1660 9723 34500 45443

Date: 2016-04-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62782 19870 2227 1914 460 16 0 0
OW 60 133 241 583 701 17 0 0
VODI 0 84 129 427 953 266 0 0
ODI 0 57 60 223 602 468 6 0
CDI 0 16 70 231 805 1337 170 17
VCDI 0 0 4 253 1733 10953 32731 46449
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62781 19722 2128 2033 1064 131 0 0
OW 61 137 205 443 584 113 0 0
VODI 0 88 202 304 611 297 1 0
ODI 0 64 57 243 408 369 30 2
CDI 0 97 71 247 794 1316 279 42
VCDI 0 52 68 361 1793 10831 32597 46422


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