Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2016-03-24

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-03-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58905 22440 2621 1320 254 12 0 0
OW 51 273 311 339 435 68 2 0
VODI 0 209 222 388 439 241 17 0
ODI 0 132 131 300 427 484 29 0
CDI 0 208 164 500 448 1186 261 0
VCDI 0 121 206 698 1837 12457 35957 42955
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-03-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59610 21667 2321 1340 315 22 3 0
OW 52 249 339 308 419 86 11 0
VODI 0 197 217 409 382 254 29 0
ODI 0 96 104 277 356 424 35 0
CDI 0 88 120 317 500 1098 194 18
VCDI 0 144 225 651 1902 8961 38374 44934
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-03-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59524 22214 2418 1343 146 0 0 0
OW 52 179 232 618 315 24 0 0
VODI 0 89 149 508 558 140 0 0
ODI 0 0 105 315 480 418 5 0
CDI 0 0 75 264 609 1245 339 20
VCDI 0 0 10 240 1248 8156 37630 47380
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-03-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59338 22871 2422 914 190 0 0 0
OW 52 172 309 473 251 0 0 0
VODI 0 75 142 545 452 81 0 0
ODI 0 76 68 402 555 292 3 0
CDI 0 9 70 403 834 724 219 16
VCDI 0 0 30 411 1650 8714 32989 51296
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59338 22895 2466 930 201 0 0 0
OW 52 158 276 455 243 2 0 0
VODI 0 66 133 549 440 81 0 0
ODI 0 73 57 397 543 256 1 0
CDI 0 11 70 368 765 750 216 33
VCDI 0 0 39 449 1740 8722 32994 51279

Date: 2016-03-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60041 21950 2259 1203 384 7 0 0
OW 52 279 247 420 364 22 1 0
VODI 0 96 217 348 544 122 6 0
ODI 0 57 90 345 489 402 17 0
CDI 0 37 78 328 551 980 261 2
VCDI 0 0 66 506 1528 7737 30083 54929
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60041 21988 2260 1260 453 9 0 0
OW 52 249 262 335 352 32 1 0
VODI 0 92 201 389 518 125 6 0
ODI 0 54 88 345 456 396 16 0
CDI 0 36 74 301 550 972 276 3
VCDI 0 0 72 520 1531 7736 30069 54928

Date: 2016-03-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61155 21435 2279 1298 287 19 0 0
OW 51 256 318 557 331 20 0 0
VODI 0 86 236 473 545 95 0 0
ODI 0 18 86 314 627 419 0 0
CDI 0 10 41 325 542 1865 250 11
VCDI 0 1 46 339 1663 6239 29828 54983
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61155 20906 1885 1323 438 24 0 0
OW 51 399 312 314 365 53 0 0
VODI 0 268 287 272 491 233 0 0
ODI 0 110 138 280 324 537 0 0
CDI 0 52 128 274 454 1516 263 13
VCDI 0 71 256 843 1923 6294 29815 54981

Date: 2016-03-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60131 22408 2150 1209 312 37 0 0
OW 51 327 261 470 241 72 0 0
VODI 0 325 213 427 355 145 0 0
ODI 0 159 148 444 429 378 25 0
CDI 0 122 115 400 850 1098 221 4
VCDI 0 55 194 703 1824 6994 31036 52715
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60131 21959 1900 1159 400 58 0 0
OW 51 542 317 290 234 99 0 0
VODI 0 425 268 485 365 171 1 0
ODI 0 137 159 381 408 333 20 0
CDI 0 106 82 382 605 1019 157 6
VCDI 0 227 355 956 1999 7044 31104 52713

Date: 2016-04-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64046 19020 2009 961 192 40 0 0
OW 51 253 358 449 228 66 8 0
VODI 0 269 162 509 351 186 24 0
ODI 0 109 101 304 506 386 46 0
CDI 0 112 106 328 725 1309 322 19
VCDI 0 106 237 552 1773 7226 32360 51239
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64046 18428 1836 853 278 92 12 0
OW 51 319 296 406 171 92 18 0
VODI 0 345 185 474 319 203 43 0
ODI 0 348 149 323 407 335 66 0
CDI 0 156 139 239 754 1213 430 99
VCDI 0 273 368 808 1846 7278 32191 51159


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