Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2016-03-17

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-03-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61769 20938 2026 1188 365 33 0 0
OW 50 558 519 503 310 103 0 0
VODI 0 320 354 675 400 197 2 0
ODI 0 84 229 595 774 284 16 0
CDI 0 48 72 357 957 996 79 4
VCDI 0 0 23 251 1301 9549 31854 49265
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-03-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62849 19695 2169 997 444 45 0 0
OW 50 701 506 400 271 105 0 0
VODI 0 450 347 721 383 239 12 0
ODI 0 162 212 719 456 400 28 0
CDI 0 60 80 298 786 1180 112 0
VCDI 0 0 23 227 998 9928 31215 49780
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-03-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60933 21677 2478 1228 377 24 0 0
OW 62 482 564 562 324 58 0 0
VODI 0 54 204 883 591 205 10 0
ODI 0 78 142 629 1002 490 38 0
CDI 0 1 5 208 904 1650 172 10
VCDI 0 0 0 96 1133 11473 31292 47009
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-03-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59093 21855 2959 1392 396 2 0 0
OW 51 366 294 385 415 32 0 0
VODI 0 214 240 474 525 182 11 0
ODI 0 271 181 489 575 370 32 2
CDI 0 70 107 376 962 1271 122 41
VCDI 0 60 89 475 1281 12684 32659 46045
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59093 21951 3002 1428 398 7 0 0
OW 51 307 255 365 418 31 0 0
VODI 0 182 232 539 545 177 7 0
ODI 0 279 194 391 649 367 33 1
CDI 0 67 99 476 1100 1352 122 37
VCDI 0 50 88 392 1044 12607 32662 46050

Date: 2016-03-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59572 21783 2356 1359 355 36 0 0
OW 52 264 310 313 387 115 0 0
VODI 0 193 219 397 356 300 12 0
ODI 0 106 118 255 334 490 45 0
CDI 0 122 125 405 444 1302 250 1
VCDI 0 174 243 673 2068 10729 37097 43688
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59573 21837 2424 1397 398 53 0 0
OW 51 246 277 338 366 105 0 0
VODI 0 184 200 351 352 311 9 0
ODI 0 99 120 300 370 499 46 0
CDI 0 101 113 326 568 1322 298 5
VCDI 0 175 237 690 1890 10682 37051 43684

Date: 2016-03-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59725 22202 2361 1187 185 9 0 0
OW 51 297 323 608 301 28 0 0
VODI 0 80 219 567 539 127 2 0
ODI 0 20 77 327 565 402 5 0
CDI 0 4 49 256 685 1672 213 14
VCDI 0 1 20 201 1371 8961 36659 46735
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59724 21932 2134 1252 304 44 0 0
OW 52 241 265 365 344 102 4 0
VODI 0 189 192 401 389 249 22 0
ODI 0 68 120 276 405 413 24 0
CDI 0 65 119 238 520 1267 218 17
VCDI 0 109 219 614 1684 9124 36611 46732

Date: 2016-03-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59578 22387 2407 1089 160 0 0 0
OW 52 155 288 584 248 5 0 0
VODI 0 123 123 589 529 85 0 0
ODI 0 26 78 444 556 240 1 0
CDI 0 1 102 370 848 762 127 23
VCDI 0 0 30 300 1604 8752 35702 48680
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59578 22134 2221 1120 298 6 0 0
OW 52 238 279 480 323 71 0 0
VODI 0 145 200 404 456 206 0 0
ODI 0 67 94 389 479 324 14 0
CDI 0 64 54 425 727 951 182 43
VCDI 0 44 180 558 1662 8286 35634 48660

Date: 2016-03-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61062 21301 2151 1039 264 1 0 0
OW 52 208 294 440 287 29 0 0
VODI 0 73 192 406 507 94 0 0
ODI 0 68 71 368 580 320 7 0
CDI 0 17 77 316 786 799 161 5
VCDI 0 0 25 427 1598 8222 33091 51710
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61062 20955 1892 813 333 0 0 0
OW 52 318 349 411 275 56 0 0
VODI 0 202 252 468 366 193 7 0
ODI 0 86 139 337 504 397 43 0
CDI 0 67 94 331 802 1045 411 80
VCDI 0 39 84 636 1742 7774 32798 51635


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