Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2016-03-10

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-03-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60455 21700 2459 1042 229 26 0 0
OW 51 610 507 423 282 12 0 0
VODI 0 368 360 673 336 72 9 0
ODI 0 94 194 769 547 119 31 0
CDI 0 57 121 614 947 663 284 29
VCDI 0 93 155 513 1719 5397 33889 51199
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-03-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57073 24730 2690 1130 274 3 0 0
OW 51 504 460 460 293 34 0 0
VODI 0 379 246 658 434 128 0 0
ODI 0 129 148 507 650 270 1 0
CDI 0 83 141 467 1085 1175 154 22
VCDI 0 132 196 599 1487 7803 33577 48875
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-03-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59623 22091 2678 1161 402 23 0 0
OW 50 583 507 781 268 28 0 0
VODI 0 196 239 1032 606 136 0 0
ODI 0 46 103 383 1188 370 0 0
CDI 0 15 39 195 1335 1625 93 13
VCDI 0 0 13 86 922 8232 33920 48066
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-03-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62272 20061 2289 1089 240 0 0 0
OW 50 754 527 476 353 12 0 0
VODI 0 289 365 829 445 86 4 0
ODI 0 54 175 724 725 179 25 0
CDI 0 47 56 365 1153 799 166 8
VCDI 0 0 13 169 1301 8254 32707 49987
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62267 19987 2349 1193 267 0 0 0
OW 55 694 396 434 296 17 0 0
VODI 0 436 459 804 466 71 6 0
ODI 0 54 173 698 700 147 23 0
CDI 0 34 41 359 1158 805 180 13
VCDI 0 0 7 164 1330 8290 32693 49982

Date: 2016-03-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61445 21290 2113 1040 356 23 0 0
OW 63 644 515 442 315 90 0 0
VODI 0 347 382 770 370 202 2 0
ODI 0 114 226 782 576 303 23 0
CDI 0 56 73 261 1004 1036 97 0
VCDI 0 0 22 210 1049 9885 31462 49460
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61458 21055 2087 1081 350 37 0 0
OW 50 718 488 420 275 80 0 0
VODI 0 507 443 772 374 184 4 0
ODI 0 131 232 759 525 286 35 0
CDI 0 40 60 273 1052 944 87 0
VCDI 0 0 21 200 1094 10008 31458 49460

Date: 2016-03-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62104 21616 2114 938 387 23 0 0
OW 61 420 660 632 260 58 0 0
VODI 0 174 245 1285 540 178 3 0
ODI 0 12 27 352 823 459 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 116 790 1873 137 1
VCDI 0 0 0 111 767 9729 31847 48294
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62115 20668 1742 988 486 53 0 0
OW 50 695 501 349 220 111 9 0
VODI 0 594 421 732 351 195 29 0
ODI 0 195 246 684 405 298 35 0
CDI 0 70 103 353 895 1005 98 4
VCDI 0 0 33 328 1210 10658 31828 48291

Date: 2016-03-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55405 26242 2712 1279 415 16 0 0
OW 50 394 345 471 378 37 0 0
VODI 0 370 387 636 507 210 0 0
ODI 0 49 99 443 876 421 22 0
CDI 0 105 121 542 1140 1613 134 25
VCDI 0 0 1 190 1130 11372 31458 47453
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55404 25993 2584 1231 539 54 0 0
OW 51 577 355 409 315 121 1 0
VODI 0 335 345 594 574 212 26 0
ODI 0 157 172 447 736 325 18 0
CDI 0 74 144 530 942 1200 101 15
VCDI 0 24 65 350 1340 11757 31468 47463

Date: 2016-03-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58905 22440 2621 1320 254 12 0 0
OW 51 273 311 339 435 68 2 0
VODI 0 209 222 388 439 241 17 0
ODI 0 132 131 300 427 484 29 0
CDI 0 208 164 500 448 1186 261 0
VCDI 0 121 206 698 1837 12457 35957 42955
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58905 22487 2530 1343 330 41 0 0
OW 51 317 414 388 331 101 10 0
VODI 0 196 307 568 499 232 32 0
ODI 0 98 104 370 628 422 9 0
CDI 0 175 125 376 719 1104 246 0
VCDI 0 110 175 500 1333 12548 35969 42955


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