Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2016-02-25

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-02-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58957 22956 3075 1178 213 13 0 0
OW 50 369 330 449 206 56 2 0
VODI 0 233 270 452 424 79 31 0
ODI 0 24 177 310 542 194 53 0
CDI 0 8 106 345 676 731 99 0
VCDI 0 28 122 489 1299 3679 7506 3369
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-02-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59367 22900 2395 1177 313 40 11 0
OW 63 473 276 440 257 38 32 0
VODI 0 298 269 394 408 65 60 0
ODI 0 58 184 261 533 75 77 0
CDI 0 36 168 318 1183 545 82 0
VCDI 0 7 216 689 1318 3796 7529 2749
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-02-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58454 23553 3044 1085 189 30 0 0
OW 61 399 493 602 198 43 0 0
VODI 0 26 180 768 535 109 13 0
ODI 0 11 55 356 696 199 32 0
CDI 0 1 43 302 713 834 198 0
VCDI 0 0 76 277 797 4101 7203 3424
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-02-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61735 19956 2465 1127 298 5 0 0
OW 50 444 549 509 311 31 0 0
VODI 0 37 175 839 504 115 9 0
ODI 0 1 50 330 593 349 26 0
CDI 0 0 32 248 657 1209 139 0
VCDI 0 0 36 238 579 4818 7543 3093
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61735 19986 2486 1187 321 6 0 0
OW 50 328 402 413 301 38 0 0
VODI 0 123 293 778 448 107 12 0
ODI 0 1 58 380 546 337 28 0
CDI 0 0 31 274 686 1185 143 0
VCDI 0 0 37 259 640 4854 7534 3093

Date: 2016-02-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57956 24073 2399 938 215 1 0 0
OW 51 284 427 624 243 29 0 0
VODI 0 67 277 1060 539 72 12 0
ODI 0 6 59 419 802 160 32 0
CDI 0 0 35 278 957 705 174 0
VCDI 0 0 25 227 828 5203 7364 2559
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57956 24097 2387 945 258 0 0 0
OW 51 283 443 586 190 26 0 0
VODI 0 45 268 978 456 70 14 0
ODI 0 5 65 461 759 153 39 0
CDI 0 0 35 323 952 750 164 0
VCDI 0 0 24 253 969 5171 7365 2559

Date: 2016-02-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57650 24264 2657 816 126 0 0 0
OW 50 263 558 691 194 1 0 0
VODI 0 20 202 921 541 46 0 0
ODI 0 0 35 313 1461 173 8 0
CDI 0 0 21 126 1099 938 83 0
VCDI 0 0 1 83 411 4181 8448 2719
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57649 24176 2542 911 156 2 0 0
OW 51 253 362 462 189 27 6 0
VODI 0 110 364 716 525 68 30 0
ODI 0 8 100 348 955 136 25 0
CDI 0 0 76 279 914 613 102 0
VCDI 0 0 30 234 1093 4493 8376 2719

Date: 2016-03-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59924 22024 2424 1078 213 32 0 0
OW 51 310 456 470 221 9 0 0
VODI 0 71 344 796 395 46 11 0
ODI 0 17 51 665 719 136 32 0
CDI 0 7 54 186 1024 453 157 0
VCDI 0 15 40 157 1002 4964 8002 2544
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59924 21883 2382 1094 285 45 5 0
OW 51 320 338 372 199 22 22 0
VODI 0 144 348 628 292 82 37 0
ODI 0 39 141 650 565 125 34 0
CDI 0 28 93 267 833 384 47 0
VCDI 0 30 67 341 1400 4982 8057 2544

Date: 2016-03-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60455 21435 2442 1042 229 26 0 0
OW 51 514 495 423 282 12 0 0
VODI 0 290 352 672 336 72 9 0
ODI 0 34 160 758 544 117 31 0
CDI 0 39 53 478 903 551 223 0
VCDI 0 92 121 367 1065 2581 9048 2798
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60455 21301 2355 1044 353 44 4 0
OW 51 454 382 286 220 27 19 0
VODI 0 379 380 451 281 70 33 0
ODI 0 80 262 717 331 119 38 0
CDI 0 43 38 634 898 350 99 0
VCDI 0 147 206 608 1276 2749 9118 2798


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