Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2016-02-25

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-02-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 9 15 36 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 51 49 69 0
VCDI 0 0 0 37 293 1801 17288 26217
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-02-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 8 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 74 121 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 34 250 2653 14954 27769
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-02-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 56 93 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 34 250 2275 15158 27993
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-02-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 10 112 9 0
VCDI 0 0 0 58 229 1985 14050 29411
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 8 112 7 0
VCDI 0 0 0 58 231 1987 14052 29411

Date: 2016-02-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 78 15 17 10
VCDI 0 0 0 92 343 2436 15452 27410
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 76 19 7 6
VCDI 0 0 0 90 341 2432 15462 27414

Date: 2016-02-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 18 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 24 4 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 22 65 77 3 3
VCDI 0 0 0 63 508 2351 15481 27243
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 15 2 7 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 22 52 115 24 2
VCDI 0 0 0 83 523 2308 15460 27244

Date: 2016-03-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 4 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 5 19 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 29 16 41 11 11
VCDI 0 0 0 45 370 2050 13851 29412
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 6 12 3 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 25 27 40 29 6
VCDI 0 0 0 57 356 2051 13833 29417

Date: 2016-03-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 18 51 10 0
VCDI 0 0 0 35 341 1845 15438 28115
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 4 2 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 18 7 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 34 339 1889 15448 28115


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