Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2016-02-25

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-02-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 58957 23286 3140 1180 213 13 0 0
OW 50 423 333 451 206 56 2 0
VODI 0 330 283 467 502 79 32 0
ODI 0 59 279 362 743 212 89 0
CDI 0 32 128 423 885 882 211 1
VCDI 0 77 205 779 1945 6752 33202 49779
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-02-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 59367 23302 2415 1178 313 40 11 0
OW 63 564 287 443 262 38 32 0
VODI 0 455 276 437 467 65 60 0
ODI 0 151 251 366 655 90 77 0
CDI 0 73 213 462 1435 755 105 2
VCDI 0 131 348 1034 2119 8212 31528 48966
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-02-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 58454 24074 3079 1091 189 30 0 0
OW 61 730 668 702 199 43 0 0
VODI 0 67 218 900 622 109 13 0
ODI 0 31 74 458 1010 235 32 0
CDI 0 21 59 371 992 1186 204 6
VCDI 0 1 128 461 1408 8448 30136 50538
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-02-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 61735 20290 2485 1129 298 5 0 0
OW 50 548 573 528 311 31 0 0
VODI 0 199 305 1081 563 115 9 0
ODI 0 115 127 401 698 419 26 0
CDI 0 16 58 324 968 1629 161 23
VCDI 0 1 120 455 1100 9053 30281 50818
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 61735 20337 2506 1189 321 6 0 0
OW 50 405 424 424 301 38 0 0
VODI 0 275 422 978 483 109 12 0
ODI 0 141 140 494 760 405 28 0
CDI 0 11 62 347 926 1642 159 21
VCDI 0 0 114 486 1147 9052 30278 50820

Date: 2016-02-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 57956 24382 2419 938 215 1 0 0
OW 51 386 436 626 243 29 0 0
VODI 0 153 374 1105 540 72 12 0
ODI 0 94 119 629 943 240 32 0
CDI 0 6 82 371 1259 1038 209 16
VCDI 0 0 34 530 1548 9992 31601 48367
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 57956 24436 2407 945 258 0 0 0
OW 51 358 453 588 190 26 0 0
VODI 0 134 344 1007 456 77 14 0
ODI 0 74 155 715 903 256 39 0
CDI 0 19 75 402 1326 1109 187 9
VCDI 0 0 30 542 1615 9904 31614 48374

Date: 2016-02-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 57650 24638 2677 816 126 0 0 0
OW 50 353 584 701 194 1 0 0
VODI 0 147 289 998 553 46 0 0
ODI 0 12 88 494 1598 215 14 0
CDI 0 0 31 187 1334 1466 170 3
VCDI 0 0 1 191 1213 10788 33382 46038
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 57649 24441 2556 911 156 2 0 0
OW 51 338 372 462 189 27 6 0
VODI 0 175 375 725 525 68 30 0
ODI 0 108 158 410 980 160 27 0
CDI 0 88 160 464 1106 940 185 2
VCDI 0 0 49 415 2062 11319 33318 46039

Date: 2016-03-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 59924 22298 2448 1078 213 32 0 0
OW 51 388 473 472 221 9 0 0
VODI 0 130 356 802 395 46 11 0
ODI 0 57 104 709 735 137 36 0
CDI 0 23 115 338 1175 588 220 24
VCDI 0 15 43 246 1554 9294 31436 50852
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 59924 22122 2402 1094 285 45 5 0
OW 51 390 350 372 199 22 22 0
VODI 0 221 368 634 292 82 37 0
ODI 0 90 179 679 571 126 35 0
CDI 0 53 147 389 974 460 109 12
VCDI 0 35 93 477 1972 9371 31495 50864

Date: 2016-03-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 60455 21700 2459 1042 229 26 0 0
OW 51 610 507 423 282 12 0 0
VODI 0 368 360 673 336 72 9 0
ODI 0 94 194 769 547 119 31 0
CDI 0 57 121 614 947 663 284 29
VCDI 0 93 155 513 1719 5397 33889 51199
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 60455 21603 2371 1044 353 44 4 0
OW 51 536 395 287 220 27 19 0
VODI 0 452 408 459 285 71 33 0
ODI 0 130 302 749 342 125 38 0
CDI 0 52 81 741 978 400 141 3
VCDI 0 149 239 754 1882 5622 33978 51225


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