Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2016-02-11

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-02-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60817 22518 2462 770 165 22 0 0
OW 51 368 303 426 152 42 0 0
VODI 0 313 207 508 244 79 1 0
ODI 0 168 181 333 454 74 20 0
CDI 0 44 244 325 1068 523 146 11
VCDI 0 0 334 979 2363 8728 31187 50418
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-02-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54397 26385 4590 793 125 61 0 0
OW 52 261 310 477 174 52 11 0
VODI 0 191 165 504 293 66 38 0
ODI 0 87 134 284 417 157 44 0
CDI 0 75 138 286 691 793 148 25
VCDI 0 2 202 572 1936 8232 31658 52222
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-02-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56562 25246 3880 946 115 41 0 0
OW 51 265 348 591 131 42 1 0
VODI 0 163 263 449 346 61 16 0
ODI 0 5 208 291 395 122 32 0
CDI 0 0 75 346 661 522 205 16
VCDI 0 0 67 586 1651 8776 30676 52897
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-02-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57665 25173 2853 828 94 6 0 0
OW 51 328 434 696 125 14 0 0
VODI 0 274 252 523 439 52 0 0
ODI 0 110 147 294 519 149 8 0
CDI 0 94 124 384 655 618 110 12
VCDI 0 54 171 728 2321 9062 32435 49246
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57652 25222 2920 1021 117 4 0 0
OW 64 284 364 569 165 21 0 0
VODI 0 258 264 458 442 71 1 0
ODI 0 113 152 266 447 190 11 0
CDI 0 103 115 388 590 564 127 10
VCDI 0 53 166 751 2392 9051 32414 49248

Date: 2016-02-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54038 27122 3933 837 106 9 0 0
OW 51 314 432 598 140 40 0 0
VODI 0 175 472 669 434 74 2 0
ODI 0 86 152 500 618 187 22 0
CDI 0 81 94 540 777 897 185 36
VCDI 0 44 242 647 2315 8910 31458 49811
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54038 27179 3982 944 144 14 0 0
OW 51 220 416 584 170 38 0 0
VODI 0 216 426 568 449 119 4 0
ODI 0 88 166 488 557 232 33 0
CDI 0 84 86 535 699 835 164 18
VCDI 0 35 249 672 2371 8879 31466 49829

Date: 2016-02-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 52908 28897 4002 847 55 6 0 0
OW 63 153 632 739 182 19 0 0
VODI 0 69 253 1159 492 46 0 0
ODI 0 2 68 434 952 110 0 0
CDI 0 0 24 361 1125 906 187 14
VCDI 0 0 54 243 1729 7852 31406 51059
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 52920 28512 3502 800 105 14 0 0
OW 51 263 476 464 127 32 0 0
VODI 0 157 435 572 362 66 1 0
ODI 0 110 301 582 555 132 17 0
CDI 0 57 142 544 863 740 179 11
VCDI 0 22 177 821 2523 7955 31396 51062

Date: 2016-02-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55250 26420 3762 1083 261 67 2 0
OW 63 355 294 511 137 81 23 0
VODI 0 259 394 663 305 102 47 0
ODI 0 49 203 639 526 277 81 0
CDI 0 84 194 545 774 752 288 16
VCDI 0 27 136 699 2093 6768 33553 49265
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55262 26159 3401 916 197 86 28 0
OW 51 379 387 403 83 42 32 0
VODI 0 278 332 552 261 98 66 0
ODI 0 162 298 458 414 258 97 0
CDI 0 111 233 721 651 745 270 9
VCDI 0 105 332 1090 2490 6818 33501 49272

Date: 2016-02-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58957 23286 3140 1180 213 13 0 0
OW 50 423 333 451 206 56 2 0
VODI 0 330 283 467 502 79 32 0
ODI 0 59 279 362 743 212 89 0
CDI 0 32 128 423 885 882 211 1
VCDI 0 77 205 779 1945 6752 33202 49779
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58956 23036 2892 1009 284 22 0 0
OW 51 510 367 368 145 41 5 0
VODI 0 347 318 484 495 178 36 0
ODI 0 137 271 334 659 407 62 0
CDI 0 91 213 470 766 1024 196 4
VCDI 0 86 307 997 2145 6322 33237 49776


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