Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2016-02-04

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-02-08

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 185 100 47 25 15 0 0
OW 0 13 44 42 7 14 0 0
VODI 0 2 28 37 13 13 5 0
ODI 0 0 12 42 19 10 4 0
CDI 0 0 2 38 43 15 16 0
VCDI 0 0 0 101 171 1135 5549 29155
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 140 82 40 25 23 0 0
OW 0 23 24 30 6 12 4 0
VODI 0 16 28 24 7 9 8 0
ODI 0 11 14 17 11 9 9 0
CDI 0 8 11 27 13 17 21 0
VCDI 0 2 27 169 216 1132 5532 29155

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 33 156 308 2231 405
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 33 156 308 2231 405

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 104 2520 7354
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 104 2517 7354

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 30 30 27 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 38 334 1983 3203
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 1 4 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 28 23 16 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 40 341 1996 3203

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 9 687 6545
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 9 687 6547

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 96 1995 3232
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 96 1995 3234

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 76 96 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 8 39 3 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 44 64 2 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 13 50 24 7 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 51 59 63 21 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 160 663 4293 583
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 36 82 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 11 6 2 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 18 13 5 2 0 0 0
ODI 0 16 12 9 3 3 13 0
CDI 0 3 31 11 29 39 50 7
VCDI 0 0 48 152 211 691 4251 576

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 428 6492 1421 104 0 0 0 0
OW 0 50 175 251 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 18 89 293 87 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 8 136 168 5 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 75 242 259 13 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 234 665 100 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 428 6236 1274 113 0 0 0 0
OW 0 207 136 155 22 0 0 0
VODI 0 91 86 272 99 0 0 0
ODI 0 24 87 107 117 31 0 0
CDI 0 2 70 105 183 353 18 0
VCDI 0 0 40 112 323 545 95 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4539 4442 242 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 31 73 36 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 25 46 75 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 11 21 67 13 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 37 52 62 6 0 0
VCDI 0 0 4 61 182 1210 458 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4539 4291 146 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 111 68 1 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 63 94 20 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 29 41 60 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 15 32 84 9 2 0 0
VCDI 0 0 42 129 248 1214 458 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5352 5677 827 190 58 13 0 0
OW 0 27 84 44 23 16 2 0
VODI 0 1 51 69 43 27 7 0
ODI 0 0 13 47 37 37 19 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 76 92 90 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 2 47 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5352 5666 799 212 80 29 0 0
OW 0 30 60 28 23 25 13 0
VODI 0 8 62 28 12 36 38 0
ODI 0 1 34 27 16 25 27 0
CDI 0 0 20 60 64 27 32 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 45 45 55 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 4 2 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 11 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 36 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 220 1100 4007 414
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 8 4 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 33 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 232 1100 4007 414

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 20 416 5042 3109
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 20 416 5039 3109

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4508 7632 2050 472 4 0 0 0
OW 0 0 26 282 70 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 136 230 15 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 29 310 39 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 280 334 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 268 2485 1035 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4508 7632 2030 518 36 0 0 0
OW 0 0 44 205 110 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 129 202 22 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 48 210 61 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 21 238 268 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 366 2521 1035 0


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