Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2016-02-04

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-01-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61518 22168 2137 976 223 30 0 0
OW 62 294 438 401 149 34 0 0
VODI 0 110 360 536 315 51 8 0
ODI 0 154 275 550 478 117 20 0
CDI 0 18 130 499 975 748 129 8
VCDI 0 0 36 345 1876 9715 33309 47856
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-01-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61155 21737 2785 922 193 58 4 0
OW 61 365 399 424 203 16 11 0
VODI 0 130 364 489 300 75 8 0
ODI 0 139 155 492 332 133 21 0
CDI 0 226 150 462 660 675 137 2
VCDI 0 18 193 652 2063 9230 31034 50575
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-02-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61409 22243 2746 913 143 53 34 0
OW 71 352 324 565 84 18 18 0
VODI 0 255 272 582 362 28 19 0
ODI 0 75 168 471 620 97 35 1
CDI 0 131 184 608 1136 721 126 36
VCDI 0 0 7 351 1804 7767 31372 50847
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-02-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58990 24139 3119 612 133 8 0 0
OW 52 382 309 442 137 46 0 0
VODI 0 368 179 492 280 43 2 0
ODI 0 188 147 357 445 112 4 0
CDI 0 95 197 437 918 581 116 19
VCDI 0 52 348 1061 2215 8514 32021 49488
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58991 24111 3140 654 157 7 0 0
OW 51 441 282 401 112 56 0 0
VODI 0 345 186 481 266 45 4 0
ODI 0 167 143 346 423 121 2 0
CDI 0 109 195 435 861 559 121 16
VCDI 0 51 353 1084 2309 8516 32016 49491

Date: 2016-02-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57837 24019 3565 978 185 44 0 0
OW 51 281 293 458 163 50 1 0
VODI 0 214 184 520 249 77 14 0
ODI 0 139 165 320 437 126 30 0
CDI 0 88 184 302 880 664 190 12
VCDI 0 15 284 792 2315 8089 31443 51390
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57837 23927 3564 1024 191 45 0 0
OW 51 357 263 439 167 61 3 0
VODI 0 220 239 515 234 85 11 0
ODI 0 124 151 317 397 120 40 0
CDI 0 94 138 328 821 632 173 9
VCDI 0 34 320 747 2419 8107 31451 51393

Date: 2016-02-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55105 25980 4771 819 87 28 0 0
OW 51 130 444 665 113 30 2 0
VODI 0 46 258 681 379 57 12 0
ODI 0 11 67 374 588 100 27 0
CDI 0 0 39 238 828 800 170 7
VCDI 0 0 4 210 1453 8527 29947 54000
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55104 25477 4448 884 141 52 0 0
OW 52 383 341 430 161 38 17 0
VODI 0 196 285 481 323 67 46 0
ODI 0 81 188 276 365 133 51 0
CDI 0 28 164 310 600 730 146 10
VCDI 0 2 157 606 1858 8522 29898 53997

Date: 2016-02-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55675 26293 3726 920 122 11 0 0
OW 51 321 405 629 148 17 0 0
VODI 0 244 212 476 390 70 0 0
ODI 0 89 166 252 430 163 7 0
CDI 0 81 93 319 681 491 165 16
VCDI 0 38 143 697 2180 8728 32372 50227
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55674 25738 3478 992 176 38 0 0
OW 52 426 408 438 158 54 0 0
VODI 0 267 305 428 338 94 5 0
ODI 0 181 113 305 348 129 14 0
CDI 0 158 94 348 582 417 78 15
VCDI 0 296 347 782 2349 8748 32447 50228

Date: 2016-02-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55520 25404 4467 842 92 33 0 0
OW 51 267 411 753 108 33 0 0
VODI 0 285 332 632 389 82 3 0
ODI 0 72 226 352 564 144 26 0
CDI 0 99 129 409 760 659 153 7
VCDI 0 60 187 669 2433 9012 31901 49482
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55520 25186 4161 1144 223 111 0 0
OW 51 285 455 476 245 63 1 0
VODI 0 162 306 471 399 152 19 0
ODI 0 101 180 330 280 179 26 0
CDI 0 184 163 406 606 385 122 13
VCDI 0 269 487 830 2593 9073 31915 49476


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