Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2016-01-28

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-02-01

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 258 190 26 9 0 0 0
OW 0 42 123 25 12 1 0 0
VODI 0 7 118 91 10 12 0 0
ODI 0 0 13 108 50 11 0 0
CDI 0 0 8 94 181 91 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 55 321 1787 5735 27524
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 231 95 22 11 0 0 0
OW 0 14 59 12 10 5 0 0
VODI 0 9 45 17 7 9 0 0
ODI 0 7 31 19 9 13 0 0
CDI 0 10 35 40 25 55 2 0
VCDI 0 36 187 289 521 1820 5733 27524

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 63 143 202 2126 599
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 63 143 202 2126 599

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 11 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 220 2546 7205
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 231 2546 7205

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 10 38 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 79 2013 3511
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 4 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 8 31 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 78 2014 3511

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 11 1104 6130
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 11 1104 6129

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 54 1777 3482
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 7 15
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 53 1770 3480

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 145 13 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 29 14 25 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 187 162 139 10 0 0 0
ODI 0 4 46 155 73 7 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 74 109 92 26 0
VCDI 0 0 0 17 211 781 3977 34
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 102 13 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 31 0 1 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 38 13 22 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 73 49 21 4 6 0 0
CDI 0 100 20 54 29 53 16 0
VCDI 0 21 140 313 370 821 3987 34

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2482 5583 624 77 0 0 0 0
OW 17 81 223 242 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 38 321 95 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 95 223 6 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 35 301 106 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 22 297 322 137 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2474 5215 443 25 0 0 0 0
OW 25 290 138 47 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 149 174 200 15 0 0 0
ODI 0 12 109 201 68 6 0 0
CDI 0 0 21 168 200 32 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 151 633 396 136 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4667 4125 416 26 0 0 0 0
OW 0 33 44 57 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 27 42 61 20 0 0 0
ODI 0 11 33 44 33 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 53 99 122 111 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 121 1100 443 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4667 3934 357 12 0 0 0 0
OW 0 87 49 43 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 67 45 53 9 0 0 0
ODI 0 39 27 41 24 0 0 0
CDI 0 32 20 31 63 28 0 0
VCDI 0 37 90 113 201 1184 443 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6308 4761 539 333 154 56 4 0
OW 0 5 40 42 17 23 4 0
VODI 0 0 26 63 37 15 8 0
ODI 0 0 13 27 47 26 6 0
CDI 0 0 1 42 78 196 20 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 25 69 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6308 4735 534 341 163 65 2 0
OW 0 21 27 72 16 28 18 0
VODI 0 10 21 20 59 22 7 0
ODI 0 0 22 15 18 57 4 0
CDI 0 0 15 54 44 112 69 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 36 57 11 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 18 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 45 7 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 130 700 4450 434
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 2 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 33 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 158 707 4450 434

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 31 20 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 7 441 5837 2251
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 37 25 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 7 435 5832 2251

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7531 6045 944 547 22 0 0 0
OW 0 0 19 217 112 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 102 273 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 12 303 57 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 247 594 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 76 1683 1422 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7531 6045 937 574 48 0 0 0
OW 0 0 25 190 177 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 81 255 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 31 206 84 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 247 495 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 100 1750 1422 0


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