Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2016-01-28

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-01-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64493 19605 2256 626 127 90 6 0
OW 70 81 428 735 47 18 9 0
VODI 0 34 137 896 394 35 20 0
ODI 0 16 39 352 653 92 25 0
CDI 0 0 26 188 695 432 135 0
VCDI 0 0 7 195 911 3621 7486 4120
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-01-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63526 20025 2354 847 156 125 0 0
OW 63 118 373 686 94 22 3 0
VODI 0 47 166 679 532 48 9 0
ODI 0 27 56 340 589 311 20 0
CDI 0 8 30 236 722 489 102 0
VCDI 0 0 17 115 834 4409 6864 4058
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-01-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60417 22797 2576 1145 205 51 0 0
OW 97 253 413 541 137 16 0 0
VODI 0 75 223 818 393 39 4 0
ODI 0 4 67 292 816 88 13 0
CDI 0 0 16 186 1066 594 24 0
VCDI 0 0 16 120 651 5333 6894 2720
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-01-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60177 22399 3318 791 150 17 0 0
OW 51 210 460 445 74 29 0 0
VODI 0 125 227 777 234 33 10 0
ODI 0 21 200 408 626 94 17 0
CDI 0 4 80 272 993 462 22 0
VCDI 0 0 34 231 1311 5076 6598 3124
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60165 22397 3406 813 159 13 0 0
OW 63 207 398 463 74 32 0 0
VODI 0 95 192 810 284 32 10 0
ODI 0 56 189 309 601 97 17 0
CDI 0 4 96 270 879 446 20 0
VCDI 0 0 38 259 1391 5091 6600 3124

Date: 2016-01-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59180 22947 3254 991 213 65 11 0
OW 56 294 399 385 167 13 15 0
VODI 0 114 264 537 253 63 10 0
ODI 0 106 95 439 363 80 29 0
CDI 0 75 135 268 797 367 64 0
VCDI 0 8 89 268 1252 5628 6687 3119
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59179 22943 3354 1049 228 58 8 0
OW 57 293 315 403 127 18 17 0
VODI 0 104 236 541 291 53 12 0
ODI 0 71 92 359 410 91 20 0
CDI 0 121 122 215 742 376 67 0
VCDI 0 12 117 321 1247 5620 6692 3119

Date: 2016-02-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62377 20936 2700 1010 185 56 4 0
OW 79 158 444 589 144 24 4 0
VODI 0 34 196 618 410 29 8 0
ODI 0 11 59 272 631 101 6 0
CDI 0 0 62 260 909 1084 20 0
VCDI 0 0 0 79 751 4511 7170 3169
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62380 20349 2355 974 222 65 2 0
OW 76 395 300 369 205 33 18 0
VODI 0 224 276 380 342 38 7 0
ODI 0 56 171 313 307 160 4 0
CDI 0 42 82 271 578 718 70 0
VCDI 0 73 277 521 1376 4791 7111 3169

Date: 2016-02-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57881 25166 2927 686 109 42 0 0
OW 63 350 344 454 89 35 10 0
VODI 0 252 202 484 232 28 10 0
ODI 0 152 143 348 433 70 9 0
CDI 0 28 125 397 993 282 17 0
VCDI 0 2 110 704 1480 4874 6451 3118
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57867 24430 2677 658 151 48 3 0
OW 77 486 318 349 149 37 21 0
VODI 0 346 250 340 241 52 9 0
ODI 0 210 128 298 272 70 7 0
CDI 0 183 85 362 702 225 73 0
VCDI 0 295 393 1066 1821 4899 6384 3118

Date: 2016-02-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60817 22210 2422 769 165 22 0 0
OW 51 331 296 418 152 42 0 0
VODI 0 268 201 460 223 79 1 0
ODI 0 127 174 298 382 68 19 0
CDI 0 17 214 304 867 399 40 0
VCDI 0 0 186 665 1453 4700 7033 3227
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60812 21493 2135 687 212 18 0 0
OW 56 440 310 286 189 63 0 0
VODI 0 411 234 420 186 85 1 0
ODI 0 222 131 309 199 110 12 0
CDI 0 170 123 270 552 274 58 0
VCDI 0 217 560 942 1904 4760 7022 3227


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