Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2016-01-21

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-01-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59022 24060 2713 758 219 70 3 0
OW 73 202 510 533 91 30 7 0
VODI 0 17 192 668 324 32 17 0
ODI 0 15 37 368 549 126 18 0
CDI 0 8 38 226 838 776 75 0
VCDI 0 0 44 232 636 3362 7767 4444
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-01-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60799 23021 2214 564 141 102 0 0
OW 81 189 521 480 78 26 0 0
VODI 0 40 272 718 229 53 0 0
ODI 0 22 65 440 449 119 0 0
CDI 0 26 43 230 827 418 60 0
VCDI 0 42 80 331 1012 3597 8631 3180
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-01-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60584 23323 2676 891 122 66 10 0
OW 63 76 373 735 99 40 2 0
VODI 0 35 109 828 344 48 2 0
ODI 0 15 22 312 615 121 8 0
CDI 0 15 10 201 695 503 58 0
VCDI 0 8 54 197 863 3163 7757 4057
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-01-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60210 23047 2906 794 140 88 10 0
OW 65 72 428 756 99 19 10 0
VODI 0 38 114 834 403 41 20 0
ODI 0 19 23 334 606 144 32 0
CDI 0 4 24 165 648 535 174 0
VCDI 0 0 30 159 851 3606 7384 4268
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60212 23027 2924 830 136 80 12 0
OW 63 106 374 647 97 30 9 0
VODI 0 28 156 819 333 38 20 0
ODI 0 14 16 405 611 115 30 0
CDI 0 5 18 177 630 543 172 0
VCDI 0 0 37 164 940 3627 7387 4268

Date: 2016-01-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64394 19666 2263 629 143 119 4 0
OW 65 80 480 676 42 23 3 0
VODI 0 42 126 897 412 44 15 0
ODI 0 23 50 343 600 124 39 0
CDI 0 12 28 183 759 301 130 0
VCDI 0 0 11 102 811 4162 7067 4232
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64394 19632 2266 665 147 119 4 0
OW 65 117 437 523 41 25 3 0
VODI 0 38 174 903 250 32 15 0
ODI 0 22 39 406 621 83 31 0
CDI 0 14 27 204 780 322 151 0
VCDI 0 0 15 129 928 4192 7054 4232

Date: 2016-01-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61246 22221 2624 853 158 81 0 0
OW 99 248 457 718 76 16 0 0
VODI 0 30 112 944 410 29 1 0
ODI 0 0 31 249 997 123 3 0
CDI 0 0 8 124 871 731 32 0
VCDI 0 0 3 70 707 4476 7736 2616
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61294 22112 2308 848 180 95 0 0
OW 51 195 459 438 73 27 0 0
VODI 0 101 241 720 263 27 7 0
ODI 0 45 81 421 685 73 9 0
CDI 0 29 64 277 900 505 34 0
VCDI 0 17 82 254 1118 4729 7722 2616

Date: 2016-01-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63072 20061 2556 1098 212 35 0 0
OW 97 174 410 515 129 27 0 0
VODI 0 157 202 734 423 41 10 0
ODI 0 17 151 338 725 115 21 0
CDI 0 0 47 308 957 628 18 0
VCDI 0 0 24 190 775 5378 6716 2739
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63104 19766 2446 1060 235 65 0 0
OW 65 203 371 434 114 22 9 0
VODI 0 154 172 699 302 29 17 0
ODI 0 94 104 336 742 82 16 0
CDI 0 109 107 255 903 639 18 0
VCDI 0 83 190 399 925 5387 6705 2739

Date: 2016-01-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61518 21876 2096 975 223 30 0 0
OW 62 265 399 395 149 34 0 0
VODI 0 87 280 510 315 51 8 0
ODI 0 126 148 410 456 94 20 0
CDI 0 18 117 286 831 564 45 0
VCDI 0 0 36 244 1205 5477 6635 3115
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61523 21544 1937 926 231 57 0 0
OW 57 419 348 328 131 31 5 0
VODI 0 125 352 385 292 37 11 0
ODI 0 71 177 364 426 101 14 0
CDI 0 104 91 365 646 551 38 0
VCDI 0 109 171 452 1453 5473 6640 3115


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