Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2016-01-21

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-01-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 265 37 12 0 0 0 0
OW 0 24 20 15 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 75 26 7 0 0 0
ODI 0 6 86 75 26 15 0 0
CDI 0 10 29 109 123 136 15 0
VCDI 0 0 2 65 182 2008 11149 17561
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-01-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 245 58 5 2 0 0 0
OW 0 8 57 4 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 26 40 55 11 0 0 0
ODI 0 34 63 66 18 26 0 0
CDI 0 4 61 98 140 161 11 0
VCDI 0 0 0 97 220 1543 8839 20183
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-01-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 272 81 1 5 0 0 0
OW 0 16 67 12 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 32 132 101 11 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 11 170 52 6 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 35 161 131 15 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 159 1418 8978 20204
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-01-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 270 44 0 2 1 0 0
OW 0 18 31 11 3 1 0 0
VODI 0 12 63 37 3 6 0 0
ODI 0 18 75 105 14 13 0 0
CDI 0 3 34 135 128 127 51 15
VCDI 0 0 0 9 111 1166 12524 17052
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 276 52 0 2 1 0 0
OW 0 13 30 8 3 1 0 0
VODI 0 12 62 43 3 4 0 0
ODI 0 20 68 98 11 10 0 0
CDI 0 0 35 121 115 113 47 9
VCDI 0 0 0 27 127 1185 12528 17058

Date: 2016-01-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 239 68 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 17 31 5 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 56 19 6 1 0 0
ODI 0 1 62 72 5 7 0 0
CDI 0 0 61 152 109 46 18 30
VCDI 0 0 0 39 131 743 9876 20273
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 249 68 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 9 34 1 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 52 18 5 1 0 0
ODI 0 1 76 63 5 6 0 0
CDI 0 0 48 145 103 41 16 28
VCDI 0 0 0 60 138 749 9878 20275

Date: 2016-01-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 407 141 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 5 127 73 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 19 137 31 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 62 110 55 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 153 258 64 9
VCDI 0 0 0 1 62 1516 11229 17599
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 283 19 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 58 17 1 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 53 68 3 3 1 0 0
ODI 0 18 114 61 12 11 6 0
CDI 0 0 54 120 140 129 62 10
VCDI 0 0 15 104 202 1689 11231 17598

Date: 2016-01-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 331 30 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 80 30 2 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 77 190 43 0 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 44 161 32 14 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 81 116 100 47 2
VCDI 0 0 0 15 132 1735 10790 18027
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 262 23 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 56 6 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 74 21 1 0 2 0 0
ODI 0 90 86 4 0 6 3 0
CDI 0 6 130 108 13 43 50 3
VCDI 0 0 28 189 267 1799 10786 18026

Date: 2016-01-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 292 41 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 29 39 6 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 23 80 26 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 28 127 140 22 19 0 0
CDI 0 0 13 211 112 85 68 0
VCDI 0 0 0 64 294 1473 9935 18954
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 264 36 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 40 18 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 14 64 10 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 16 80 48 19 13 0 0
CDI 0 38 69 174 36 61 25 28
VCDI 0 0 33 215 373 1503 9978 18926


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