Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2016-01-21

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-01-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59022 24325 2750 770 219 70 3 0
OW 73 226 530 548 91 30 7 0
VODI 0 21 267 694 331 34 17 0
ODI 0 21 123 443 578 159 19 0
CDI 0 18 67 349 974 1044 142 0
VCDI 0 0 46 323 1089 8654 33207 49764
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-01-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60799 23266 2272 569 143 102 0 0
OW 81 197 578 484 85 26 0 0
VODI 0 66 312 773 240 53 0 0
ODI 0 56 128 506 475 146 0 0
CDI 0 30 104 340 987 656 75 0
VCDI 0 42 80 457 1492 7851 31425 52152
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-01-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60584 23595 2757 892 127 66 10 0
OW 63 92 440 747 102 40 2 0
VODI 0 67 241 929 355 48 2 0
ODI 0 15 33 482 683 133 8 0
CDI 0 15 10 240 892 745 95 0
VCDI 0 8 54 270 1379 7466 32612 50749
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-01-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60210 23317 2950 794 142 89 10 0
OW 65 90 459 767 102 20 10 0
VODI 0 50 177 871 406 47 20 0
ODI 0 37 98 439 622 159 32 0
CDI 0 7 58 307 792 757 228 15
VCDI 0 0 30 202 1208 7847 33958 49656
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60212 23303 2976 830 138 81 12 0
OW 63 119 404 655 100 31 9 0
VODI 0 40 218 862 336 42 20 0
ODI 0 34 84 503 624 131 30 0
CDI 0 5 53 302 762 750 221 9
VCDI 0 0 37 228 1312 7884 33966 49662

Date: 2016-01-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64394 19905 2331 630 143 119 4 0
OW 65 97 511 681 48 23 3 0
VODI 0 50 182 916 418 45 15 0
ODI 0 24 112 415 605 131 39 0
CDI 0 12 89 337 882 417 180 30
VCDI 0 0 11 180 1180 7763 31096 52965
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64394 19881 2334 666 147 119 4 0
OW 65 126 471 524 47 25 3 0
VODI 0 44 226 921 255 33 15 0
ODI 0 23 115 469 626 89 31 0
CDI 0 14 75 349 898 426 205 28
VCDI 0 0 15 230 1303 7806 31079 52967

Date: 2016-01-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61246 22628 2765 854 158 81 0 0
OW 99 253 584 791 77 16 0 0
VODI 0 30 131 1081 441 30 1 0
ODI 0 0 31 311 1107 178 9 0
CDI 0 0 8 149 1033 1057 104 9
VCDI 0 0 3 152 1025 9524 33072 48010
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61294 22395 2327 848 180 95 0 0
OW 51 253 476 439 73 27 0 0
VODI 0 154 309 723 266 28 7 0
ODI 0 63 195 482 697 84 15 0
CDI 0 29 118 404 1050 688 99 10
VCDI 0 17 97 442 1575 9964 33065 48009

Date: 2016-01-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63072 20392 2586 1098 212 35 0 0
OW 97 254 440 517 129 27 0 0
VODI 0 234 392 777 423 42 10 0
ODI 0 17 195 499 758 129 23 0
CDI 0 0 47 393 1116 823 65 4
VCDI 0 0 24 242 1205 10353 32998 47420
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63104 20028 2469 1060 235 65 0 0
OW 65 259 377 434 114 22 9 0
VODI 0 228 193 700 302 31 17 0
ODI 0 184 190 340 745 88 19 0
CDI 0 115 237 367 950 799 75 4
VCDI 0 83 218 625 1497 10404 32976 47420

Date: 2016-01-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61518 22168 2137 976 223 30 0 0
OW 62 294 438 401 149 34 0 0
VODI 0 110 360 536 315 51 8 0
ODI 0 154 275 550 478 117 20 0
CDI 0 18 130 499 975 748 129 8
VCDI 0 0 36 345 1876 9715 33309 47856
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61523 21808 1973 927 231 57 0 0
OW 57 459 366 328 131 31 5 0
VODI 0 139 416 395 292 37 11 0
ODI 0 87 257 412 445 118 14 0
CDI 0 142 160 544 705 679 85 54
VCDI 0 109 204 701 2212 9773 33351 47810


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