Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2016-01-14

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-01-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64667 20447 1938 581 71 1 0 0
OW 60 233 465 363 75 8 0 0
VODI 0 112 444 865 287 51 0 0
ODI 0 38 86 591 747 119 0 0
CDI 0 15 35 210 564 322 11 0
VCDI 0 0 29 204 762 3188 6922 4589
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-01-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63627 20700 1987 746 184 17 0 0
OW 66 246 377 371 90 38 1 0
VODI 0 123 415 541 282 80 3 0
ODI 0 26 78 638 504 184 15 0
CDI 0 24 34 359 926 468 22 0
VCDI 0 1 27 191 499 2898 7752 4560
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-01-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64359 20170 2279 652 117 50 3 0
OW 67 95 474 492 52 17 2 0
VODI 0 32 177 773 244 36 3 0
ODI 0 7 38 450 942 171 4 0
CDI 0 3 33 173 1079 736 9 0
VCDI 0 0 9 149 556 2879 7429 4339
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-01-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63351 20214 2520 635 201 67 5 0
OW 65 193 528 482 43 28 0 0
VODI 0 25 202 726 226 36 5 0
ODI 0 24 53 420 453 109 8 0
CDI 0 21 37 246 1072 612 63 0
VCDI 0 0 64 204 686 3193 7975 4308
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63351 20277 2573 612 197 64 5 0
OW 65 135 483 484 47 33 0 0
VODI 0 20 194 762 205 37 4 0
ODI 0 24 56 411 499 107 10 0
CDI 0 21 32 224 1027 614 57 0
VCDI 0 0 66 220 706 3190 7980 4308

Date: 2016-01-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60977 22404 2370 680 211 109 0 0
OW 69 212 478 557 69 25 0 0
VODI 0 31 226 736 235 41 1 0
ODI 0 17 41 368 554 111 3 0
CDI 0 20 23 236 970 528 60 0
VCDI 0 17 60 282 719 3539 7876 4245
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60975 22404 2334 651 196 102 0 0
OW 71 198 510 526 85 34 0 0
VODI 0 47 215 774 212 42 1 0
ODI 0 14 46 378 507 105 5 0
CDI 0 21 31 237 1025 521 63 0
VCDI 0 17 62 293 733 3549 7871 4245

Date: 2016-01-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60340 23250 3077 725 129 76 9 0
OW 63 80 471 774 87 52 0 0
VODI 0 14 68 841 347 46 0 0
ODI 0 16 24 267 713 110 0 0
CDI 0 10 21 145 754 567 46 0
VCDI 0 0 29 167 808 3222 7663 4089
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60340 22894 2659 667 163 100 9 0
OW 63 290 423 405 76 59 0 0
VODI 0 96 338 629 193 64 0 0
ODI 0 21 110 472 342 105 2 0
CDI 0 21 55 328 641 313 147 0
VCDI 0 48 105 418 1423 3432 7560 4089

Date: 2016-01-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61814 21725 2732 813 138 83 19 0
OW 63 70 406 826 88 24 4 0
VODI 0 35 100 849 395 38 12 0
ODI 0 18 21 323 596 159 13 0
CDI 0 6 22 184 569 592 99 0
VCDI 0 0 56 173 746 3197 7877 4215
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61811 21403 2415 639 149 99 23 0
OW 66 247 426 546 111 33 7 0
VODI 0 93 239 747 254 63 14 0
ODI 0 19 75 485 361 103 17 0
CDI 0 22 58 267 508 267 115 0
VCDI 0 70 124 484 1149 3528 7848 4215

Date: 2016-01-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64493 19605 2256 626 127 90 6 0
OW 70 81 428 735 47 18 9 0
VODI 0 34 137 896 394 35 20 0
ODI 0 16 39 352 653 92 25 0
CDI 0 0 26 188 695 432 135 0
VCDI 0 0 7 195 911 3621 7486 4120
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64471 19084 1697 530 142 98 8 0
OW 77 359 398 322 79 20 9 0
VODI 15 195 420 552 184 49 18 0
ODI 0 28 197 526 330 78 21 0
CDI 0 16 91 415 556 388 76 0
VCDI 0 54 90 647 1536 3655 7549 4120


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