Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2016-01-14

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-01-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64667 20790 2036 591 71 1 0 0
OW 60 299 598 460 82 8 0 0
VODI 0 202 577 1345 400 82 34 0
ODI 0 70 173 809 1078 214 39 0
CDI 0 15 35 317 1097 1073 167 19
VCDI 0 0 29 229 1136 9280 31091 47874
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-01-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63627 21000 2028 757 184 17 0 0
OW 66 316 406 390 90 38 1 0
VODI 0 196 530 660 294 80 3 0
ODI 0 64 152 883 682 252 25 0
CDI 0 24 61 533 1342 665 188 13
VCDI 0 1 27 250 971 8602 30999 50631
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-01-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64359 20434 2358 660 117 50 3 0
OW 67 117 524 517 52 17 2 0
VODI 0 61 247 859 249 36 3 0
ODI 0 11 58 623 1030 186 9 0
CDI 0 3 33 243 1549 1175 97 12
VCDI 0 0 9 179 1031 9297 35177 45594
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-01-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63351 20444 2582 651 201 67 5 0
OW 65 195 562 504 43 28 0 0
VODI 0 25 257 786 226 40 5 0
ODI 0 24 112 526 491 133 13 0
CDI 0 21 52 331 1221 882 206 21
VCDI 0 0 64 279 1136 9174 34626 47699
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63351 20507 2634 630 197 64 5 0
OW 65 137 521 504 47 33 0 0
VODI 0 20 254 832 206 42 4 0
ODI 0 24 116 510 544 126 12 0
CDI 0 21 38 324 1172 873 190 21
VCDI 0 0 66 277 1152 9186 34644 47699

Date: 2016-01-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60977 22678 2399 692 211 109 0 0
OW 69 240 505 564 72 25 0 0
VODI 0 73 290 758 241 41 1 0
ODI 0 54 104 426 580 152 3 0
CDI 0 30 86 348 1128 811 113 0
VCDI 0 17 65 408 1165 8092 30874 52647
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60975 22669 2363 661 196 102 0 0
OW 71 231 530 535 87 34 0 0
VODI 0 96 293 799 219 42 1 0
ODI 0 49 117 438 527 135 5 0
CDI 0 30 82 356 1159 811 114 0
VCDI 0 17 64 407 1209 8106 30871 52647

Date: 2016-01-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60340 23555 3168 732 136 76 9 0
OW 63 105 583 803 92 52 0 0
VODI 0 26 130 1004 362 46 0 0
ODI 0 16 26 355 808 128 0 0
CDI 0 10 21 180 933 882 88 0
VCDI 0 0 29 215 1181 7172 32858 50864
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60340 23165 2684 667 169 100 9 0
OW 63 310 471 409 79 59 0 0
VODI 0 128 427 663 204 64 0 0
ODI 0 36 188 563 359 114 2 0
CDI 0 25 82 477 753 530 199 0
VCDI 0 48 105 510 1948 7489 32745 50864

Date: 2016-01-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61814 21972 2816 815 140 84 19 0
OW 63 101 442 836 91 26 4 0
VODI 0 70 169 878 396 46 12 0
ODI 0 51 132 455 623 173 15 0
CDI 0 6 24 295 737 792 162 3
VCDI 0 0 56 216 1185 7271 33185 50873
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61811 21622 2491 639 150 99 23 0
OW 66 289 445 549 114 36 7 0
VODI 0 127 292 763 258 69 14 0
ODI 0 52 152 542 395 134 22 0
CDI 0 40 126 376 588 435 210 30
VCDI 0 70 133 626 1667 7619 33121 50846

Date: 2016-01-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64493 19848 2306 631 128 90 6 0
OW 70 86 466 744 53 18 9 0
VODI 0 38 183 940 402 35 20 0
ODI 0 16 95 435 678 94 25 0
CDI 0 0 63 338 837 615 186 35
VCDI 0 0 7 235 1240 7089 33337 51157
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64471 19314 1736 534 142 98 8 0
OW 77 373 443 334 83 20 9 0
VODI 15 201 498 617 194 55 18 0
ODI 0 30 240 633 368 108 32 0
CDI 0 16 113 502 661 585 350 20
VCDI 0 54 90 703 1890 7075 33166 51172


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