Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2016-01-07

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-01-11

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 180 136 89 17 1 0 0
OW 0 34 34 33 13 3 0 0
VODI 0 11 30 52 37 13 0 0
ODI 0 13 11 25 58 22 2 0
CDI 0 1 18 30 62 87 7 0
VCDI 0 0 1 73 138 575 4791 30305
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 115 111 79 21 7 0 0
OW 0 21 24 20 20 7 1 0
VODI 0 34 19 28 18 16 7 0
ODI 0 32 14 27 17 18 8 0
CDI 0 23 23 30 46 43 15 0
VCDI 0 14 39 118 203 610 4769 30305

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 27 132 199 1395 1374
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 27 132 199 1395 1374

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 85 1956 7941
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 85 1956 7941

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 14 38 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 41 94 21 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 16 612 3087 1731
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 53 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 15 41 26 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 40 60 80 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 16 590 3002 1731

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 21 11
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 8 1554 5651
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 29 18
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 8 1546 5644

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 241 3006 2076
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 3
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 241 2999 2076

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 113 64 2 0 0 0 0
OW 0 14 64 34 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 63 159 22 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 167 233 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 26 313 272 21 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 34 1509 3212 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 85 23 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 16 40 6 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 17 73 62 6 0 0 0
ODI 0 14 54 163 116 6 0 0
CDI 0 0 2 106 283 131 48 0
VCDI 0 0 0 51 197 1647 3185 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2963 5120 493 37 1 0 0 0
OW 27 94 189 155 15 0 0 0
VODI 0 18 78 382 47 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 167 587 13 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 32 252 338 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 42 267 10 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2990 5187 455 102 36 0 0 0
OW 0 45 191 91 20 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 106 360 96 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 9 126 333 34 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 76 383 191 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 21 76 389 10 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4228 4146 437 70 0 0 0 0
OW 2 0 78 101 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 20 106 36 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 54 70 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 51 105 83 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 78 582 1438 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4230 4136 416 63 0 0 0 0
OW 0 10 62 62 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 38 97 15 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 17 61 46 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 2 56 69 35 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 47 162 633 1438 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5760 4914 1275 252 101 11 0 0
OW 0 0 102 62 10 9 0 0
VODI 0 0 18 96 32 11 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 32 87 32 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 79 95 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5760 4914 1250 267 110 7 0 0
OW 0 0 93 30 8 7 0 0
VODI 0 0 45 76 32 21 0 0
ODI 0 0 8 37 65 70 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 41 88 48 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 6 5 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 3 4 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 22 7 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 38 37 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 66 770 4010 820
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 9 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 16 15 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 36 85 792 4010 820

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 4 72 12 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 36 1930 5781 752
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 2 59 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 38 1943 5792 752

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8785 5904 719 346 28 0 0 0
OW 0 5 68 214 52 4 0 0
VODI 0 0 26 183 152 15 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 66 428 55 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 317 403 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 95 1548 791 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8785 5834 617 311 37 1 0 0
OW 0 45 74 162 47 7 0 0
VODI 0 30 99 165 119 25 0 0
ODI 0 0 21 120 320 48 0 0
CDI 0 0 5 53 420 328 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 129 1616 790 0


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