Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2016-01-07

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-01-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65837 20136 2244 868 130 37 5 0
OW 66 326 303 356 154 25 8 0
VODI 0 146 299 364 247 115 17 0
ODI 0 40 136 376 388 75 49 0
CDI 0 26 29 315 576 209 50 0
VCDI 0 42 95 352 787 3767 8073 2032
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-01-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65552 20269 2306 547 44 17 0 0
OW 57 504 425 373 105 21 0 0
VODI 0 241 384 412 239 77 0 0
ODI 0 44 152 449 403 127 0 0
CDI 0 20 30 248 600 287 23 0
VCDI 0 26 82 364 648 3679 7194 3151
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-01-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64283 21167 2695 552 45 13 0 0
OW 56 278 758 872 66 8 0 0
VODI 0 68 159 868 235 35 2 0
ODI 0 0 36 342 468 90 9 0
CDI 0 0 15 167 669 389 31 0
VCDI 0 0 24 140 671 3112 7486 3291
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-01-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61266 22622 3318 660 46 3 0 0
OW 62 484 391 446 90 12 0 0
VODI 0 156 415 1026 390 40 3 0
ODI 0 46 81 375 584 108 6 0
CDI 0 14 28 226 606 283 7 0
VCDI 0 0 39 174 660 3269 7534 3630
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61267 22659 3361 686 44 2 0 0
OW 61 449 350 481 82 7 0 0
VODI 0 153 406 949 378 38 3 0
ODI 0 49 93 399 567 92 6 0
CDI 0 12 28 220 602 271 8 0
VCDI 0 0 34 172 703 3305 7533 3630

Date: 2016-01-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64751 20059 1915 611 130 10 0 0
OW 67 275 383 382 76 21 0 0
VODI 0 108 415 676 259 56 3 0
ODI 0 27 80 628 753 167 15 0
CDI 0 11 52 181 533 519 20 0
VCDI 0 0 28 232 600 3399 7093 4565
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64752 20096 2018 664 131 8 0 0
OW 66 255 383 415 74 17 0 0
VODI 0 102 309 687 282 52 2 0
ODI 0 22 86 525 729 159 17 0
CDI 0 5 51 189 545 501 19 0
VCDI 0 0 26 230 590 3435 7093 4565

Date: 2016-01-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62031 21511 3074 779 147 12 0 0
OW 94 138 460 544 94 16 0 0
VODI 0 29 163 791 305 39 0 0
ODI 0 13 16 339 1144 125 2 0
CDI 0 1 18 141 762 955 7 0
VCDI 0 0 1 87 342 2443 7768 4709
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62058 21440 2860 814 204 15 0 0
OW 67 119 435 339 96 21 1 0
VODI 0 64 299 681 269 66 7 0
ODI 0 32 69 362 701 170 8 0
CDI 0 23 30 263 951 624 16 0
VCDI 0 14 39 222 573 2694 7745 4709

Date: 2016-01-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61895 21926 2349 789 187 44 11 0
OW 68 145 472 480 99 23 6 0
VODI 0 33 169 640 354 41 4 0
ODI 0 27 48 384 755 173 5 0
CDI 0 25 16 272 1173 801 48 0
VCDI 0 5 37 169 589 2753 7943 4142
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61895 21930 2344 848 208 52 2 0
OW 68 102 406 457 117 25 10 0
VODI 0 23 148 602 366 75 20 0
ODI 0 20 50 289 891 305 15 0
CDI 0 39 42 236 865 774 68 0
VCDI 0 47 101 302 710 2604 7902 4142

Date: 2016-01-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59022 24060 2713 758 219 70 3 0
OW 73 202 510 533 91 30 7 0
VODI 0 17 192 668 324 32 17 0
ODI 0 15 37 368 549 126 18 0
CDI 0 8 38 226 838 776 75 0
VCDI 0 0 44 232 636 3362 7767 4444
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59028 24162 2847 975 256 55 12 0
OW 67 78 394 509 167 38 10 0
VODI 0 27 125 545 493 99 30 0
ODI 0 15 34 320 549 354 51 0
CDI 0 11 52 182 623 825 93 0
VCDI 0 9 82 254 569 3025 7691 4444


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